Oil prices fell more than 4% on Monday as hopes of a diplomatic agreement to end the US-Israeli war on Iran eased concerns about further disruptions to global crude supplies.

Checks by Nairametrics showed that Brent crude dropped by 4.5% to $118.3 per barrel at the time of reporting, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined by 4.37% to $99.57 per barrel.

The decline followed a third consecutive day of talks involving Iranian and Qatari officials aimed at advancing negotiations to end the conflict, which has heightened concerns about global oil supplies and shipping through the Middle East.

Oil prices fall as Iran talks progress

The latest decline reflects growing expectations that diplomatic efforts could help prevent another escalation of the conflict, although uncertainty surrounding the Middle East continues to influence market movements.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that the purpose of the “ongoing and progressing” talks was to continue consultations with Qatari mediators, adding that Tehran was prepared for “both defence and diplomacy”.

The diplomatic engagements have also received support from the United States, with President Donald Trump reportedly preferring negotiations over renewed military action.

Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wanted to allow negotiations to play out, Axios reported, citing unidentified sources.

On Saturday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said no decision had been made on fresh attacks and that Trump preferred a diplomatic resolution.

The push for negotiations has helped temper concerns about renewed hostilities across the region, even as attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz continue.

Middle East tensions fuel October oil rally

The decline comes after a strong rally in crude oil prices throughout October, as escalating tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran heightened fears of supply disruptions.

• On October 30, Nairametrics checks showed that Brent crude was trading at $117.30 per barrel, up 2.14%, at the time of reporting. US West Texas Intermediate crude also gained $1.85 to trade at $103.80 per barrel.
• The October rally was largely driven by increased attacks across the Middle East, particularly concerns surrounding energy infrastructure and shipping routes that are critical to international crude oil supplies.

The latest concerns over oil supplies have also been compounded by renewed attacks claimed by Yemen’s Houthi movement against Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure.

The group’s spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said in a post on X that the Houthis had targeted several strategic facilities.

What falling oil prices mean for energy costs

It remains uncertain whether the latest decline in international crude oil prices will translate into lower petrol prices and other energy costs, particularly in markets that have continued to experience elevated energy inflation.

• The sustained increase in crude oil prices presents another challenge for economies already grappling with higher energy costs, as expensive international oil can feed into transportation, electricity generation, manufacturing and petroleum products.
• In Nigeria, energy inflation more than doubled to 10.85% year-on-year in September 2026, from 4.69% in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
• The development highlights the pressure that rising energy costs continue to place on households and businesses, even as governments in other markets introduce measures to protect domestic supplies.
• In October 2026, Niger banned petrol and diesel exports to prioritise domestic consumption. However, specially authorised exports of surplus supplies by state-owned SONIDEP and refinery operator SORAZ remain permitted.

The measure reflects growing concerns among governments about securing adequate domestic energy supplies amid uncertainty in international markets.

Similarly, a September 2026 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) policy brief indicated that global fossil-fuel subsidies could exceed $1 trillion in 2026 as governments absorb part of the energy-price shock to protect consumers and businesses.