Lagos could lose its position as Sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city to Angola’s capital, Luanda, by 2050, as Luanda’s population is projected to grow significantly faster over the next 25 years, according to a World Bank report.
The report, Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation, projects that Luanda’s population will rise by 78%, from 11.4 million in 2025 to 20.3 million in 2050.
Lagos, meanwhile, is projected to grow from 12.8 million people in 2025 to 16.2 million by 2050, an increase of more than 25%. Luanda is expected to add 8.9 million people over the period, compared with 3.4 million in Lagos.
Luanda’s population to grow faster than Lagos
The projections show a widening gap in population growth between the two cities, with Luanda expected to add more than twice as many residents as Lagos between 2025 and 2050.
- “Over this period, the population of Angola’s capital city, Luanda, is projected to increase by 78 percent from 11.4 million to 20.3 million. In doing so, Luanda will overtake Lagos as SSA’s most populous city,” the report said.
It adds that Lagos will continue to experience substantial population growth despite the projected change in ranking.
- “Nevertheless, Lagos’s population will still swell by more than 25 percent, from 12.8 million to 16.2 million, between 2025 and 2050,” the report stated.
The projections are based on calculations by the World Bank and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, using data from Schiavina et al. (2025).
Rapid urbanisation raises pressure on jobs and infrastructure
The projections come as Sub-Saharan Africa continues to experience rapid urbanisation, increasing the need for governments to provide infrastructure, housing, transport and employment opportunities.
The report estimates that the region’s urban population grew from 170.2 million in 1975 to 912.6 million in 2025. Over the same period, the population living in cities increased from 64 million to 502.9 million.
The World Bank warns that population growth alone does not guarantee stronger economic performance. Cities must create enough jobs or improve labour productivity to sustain living standards as their populations expand.
- “A doubling of the urban population implies a need to double either urban employment or labor productivity over the same period, just for urban GDP per capita to stay constant—a daunting task,” the report states.
The report also notes that Sub-Saharan Africa added more than 181 million urban residents between 2014 and 2024, while real GDP per capita remained around $4,370.
It estimates that the region needs approximately 15 million new jobs annually to keep pace with its expanding young workforce, highlighting the importance of linking urban growth to employment and productivity gains.
Lagos’ urban growth and development plans
The World Bank’s projections come amid broader efforts by Lagos State to manage urban growth, improve transport infrastructure and sustain economic expansion.
In April 2026, Nairametrics reported that Lagos State was updating its 2050 mobility master plan, shifting its transport strategy towards rail, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and ferry services to address congestion and prepare for population growth. The state’s transport authority said Lagos records more than 20 million daily trips.
In October 2026, Nairametrics reported that Lagos was expanding its use of digital mapping and geospatial data to improve land administration, infrastructure planning and urban development as the state manages its growing population.
Also in October 2026, Lagos State unveiled a development plan targeting an economy worth nearly $1 trillion by 2052, with 447 initiatives spanning 21 strategic sectors, including infrastructure, governance, human capital and economic development.
