Nigeria’s financial system is projected to receive approximately N13.79 trillion in liquidity inflows in November 2026, driven largely by Open Market Operations (OMO) maturities and government disbursements.

According to the Financial Markets Dealers Association’s (FMDA) October 2026 market report, the projection represents a 2.16% increase from the N13.50 trillion recorded in October. The Association had projected N13.25 trillion liquidity inflows for October, 2026.

The November liquidity outlook follows a moderation in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) liquidity mop-up operations, which coincided with a 56.75% increase in banking-system liquidity to N7.373 trillion in October from N4.703 trillion in September.

OMO maturities drive November inflows:

The FMDA projects total liquidity inflows of N13.787 trillion in November, compared with N13.495 trillion in October, representing an increase of approximately N292 billion.

  • OMO maturities are expected to account for the largest share of inflows, with N8.927 trillion scheduled for repayment, equivalent to approximately 64.75% of the total.
  • Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) allocations are projected at N2.50 trillion, representing 18.13% of expected inflows.
  • Treasury Bills maturities are estimated at N1.919 trillion, contributing approximately 13.92%.
  • Federal Government bond coupon payments are projected at N323.154 billion, while corporate bond coupons are estimated at N68.032 billion.
  • Commercial paper maturities are expected to contribute N50.016 billion to total inflows.
  • Together, OMO maturities, FAAC allocations and Treasury Bills repayments are projected to account for approximately 96.8% of November’s liquidity inflows.
  • Treasury Bills maturities are expected to record the largest monthly increase, rising by 46.49%, or approximately N609 billion, from N1.310 trillion in October.
  • In contrast, OMO maturities are projected to decline by 1.37%, while Federal Government bond coupon payments are expected to fall by 49.08%.
  • Corporate bond coupon payments are projected to increase by 213.28%, although their contribution to overall inflows remains relatively small.

The report also identifies a $105.94 million Eurobond coupon payment due in November, which is excluded from the naira liquidity projection.

CBN OMO mop-up slows:

The November projection follows a slowdown in the CBN’s liquidity absorption operations during October, when banking-system liquidity increased by 56.75% to N7.373 trillion.

According to the FMDA, the CBN allotted N6.182 trillion in fresh OMO securities against N9.051 trillion in maturities, leaving a net repayment difference of approximately N2.87 trillion before other liquidity movements.

  • In September, the CBN sold approximately N17.51 trillion in OMO securities against N10.89 trillion in maturities, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of about N6.62 trillion.
  • The shift became particularly evident towards the end of October, when the CBN reduced allotments at its final OMO auction.
  • Treasury Bills auctions also recorded substantial unfilled subscriptions, reflecting selective acceptance of investor bids.
  • Nairametrics previously reported that FMDA data showed banking-system liquidity rising by 69.39% to N6.283 trillion in the week ended October 16.
  • The reduced pace of liquidity absorption, alongside government allocations and maturing securities, helped sustain elevated banking-system balances.
  • November’s projected inflows also exceed the N10.53 trillion forecast in the association’s May report by approximately 31%.

For banks and fixed-income investors, the anticipated inflows could sustain demand for short-term securities if fresh OMO and Treasury Bills allotments remain below maturing obligations.

However, the impact on yields will depend on the volume of new securities issued and the rates investors are willing to accept.

November liquidity outlook faces risks:

Despite the increase in banking-system liquidity, interbank funding rates remained relatively stable during October, the report indicated.

  • The Nigeria Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) closed unchanged at 20.00%, while the overnight rate declined by five basis points to 20.38%.
  • The Monetary Policy Rate remained at 23.00% following the CBN’s September 2026 decision to reduce it by 350 basis points.
  • The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for November, making subsequent policy decisions relevant to liquidity conditions.
  • The FMDA expects relatively comfortable liquidity conditions if the CBN maintains the selective auction allotments recorded towards the end of October.
  • The association also cautioned banks to maintain adequate liquidity buffers because of the CBN’s continued reliance on OMO auctions to manage excess funds.
  • Although the projected N13.79 trillion represents substantial potential inflows, it does not automatically translate into an equivalent increase in banking-system liquidity.

The eventual impact will depend on fresh securities issuance, government cash movements and the extent to which maturing obligations are reinvested.

A return to aggressive OMO issuance could absorb a significant portion of the expected inflows, while continued selective allotments could sustain excess liquidity and place further downward pressure on short-term yields.