MTN Nigeria earned N1.86 trillion from data between April and September 2026, about two and a half times the N739.84 billion generated by Airtel’s Nigerian mobile-services business.

But Airtel Nigeria grew faster from a smaller base. Its data revenue rose 33.8% year on year in constant currency, compared with about 28.3% growth for MTN Nigeria in naira, based on a Nairametrics analysis of the companies’ latest financial filings on the Nigerian Exchange.

MTN Nigeria’s financial year runs from January to December, while Airtel Africa’s runs from April to March.

Airtel’s half-year results already cover April to September, so, we subtracted MTN’s first-quarter results from its nine-month figures to match Airtel’s April–September period.

Airtel Africa reports its results in US dollars and operates across several markets. For the operating comparison, we converted Airtel Nigeria’s revenue at the disclosed weighted average rate of N1,360 per dollar for its Nigerian operations during the period.

The analysis further shows that data accounted for 59.6% of MTN Nigeria’s N3.12 trillion in revenue between April and September 2026.

At Airtel Nigeria, data made up 54% of N1.37 trillion in mobile-services revenue. Across all its markets, Airtel Africa reported revenue of $3.823 billion for the same period, equivalent to about N5.20 trillion at N1,360 per dollar.

MTN also earned more per subscriber across services such as voice and data. Its average monthly revenue per user (ARPU) was N5,150 from January to September, compared with about N3,808 for Airtel Nigeria from April to September.

Buying Airtel Africa shares gives investors a stake in its businesses across Africa, including Nigeria, so, we used the group’s profit for the stock comparison.

At October 30 prices, investors paid about N23 for every N1 of profit Airtel Africa earned per share in the 12 months to September, compared with about N12 for MTN Nigeria.

The gap was much smaller when the comparison included debt and lease obligations and looked at earnings from running the businesses.

Investors therefore have two things to weigh. How much is MTN’s lead in Nigeria worth, and how fast does Airtel Africa need to grow to justify the higher price investors pay for its earnings?

MTN’s data revenue lead is wider than its subscriber lead

MTN Nigeria ended September with 57.2 million active data users, about 74% more than Airtel Nigeria’s 32.9 million.

Yet it earned about 151% more from data over the six months. Having more customers explains part of the lead.

How much data customers use, the bundles they buy, and the prices they pay can also affect what each network earns.

Customers are using more data on both networks.

• MTN’s active data users consumed an average of 15.3 GB a month in the nine months to September, up 16.2% year on year.
• Airtel Nigeria’s smartphone customers used 16.7 GB a month in the six months to September, up from 12.7 GB.
• The companies measure different groups over different periods, so the figures show how usage is changing on each network.
• The size of MTN’s business makes Airtel’s catch-up harder. Between April and September, MTN added about N409 billion in data sales year on year, accounting for roughly 93% of its total revenue growth.

Airtel can grow faster in percentage terms while the gap in Naira still widens. To close it, Airtel eventually has to add more data revenue than MTN adds.

Its Nigerian mobile-services business more than doubled capital spending to $177 million during the period. How much extra revenue that investment brings in will help determine whether Airtel can close the gap.

What would justify Airtel’s higher price?

An investor buying Airtel Africa at the end of October was coming in after a 177.53% rally to N6,300.

• MTN Nigeria had also risen sharply, gaining 66.34% to close at N850. The rallies rewarded investors who bought earlier.
• For someone putting in fresh money, the question is how much profit and cash each company can deliver from here. Start with what the companies earned over the past year.
• At October-end prices, investors paid about N23 for every N1 of Airtel Africa’s profit per share, compared with about N12 for MTN.

But think of buying the whole business and taking on its debt and leases as well.

• On that basis, Airtel was valued at about 6.5 times its underlying EBITDA, a measure of earnings before costs such as interest, tax and depreciation.
• MTN was valued at about 5.9 times EBITDA. Airtel’s premium shrinks to roughly 11%.

The balance sheets tell another part of the story.

• Investors paid N5.36 for every N1 of equity Airtel recorded on its books, against N21.15 for MTN.

Past losses reduced MTN’s book equity, so its share price is being measured against a smaller base. That helps explain how MTN can look expensive on book value while costing less for each naira of recent profit.

Outlook

On the profits already earned, MTN Nigeria was cheaper at October-end prices. It also offered a higher interim dividend yield. MTN’s N26 per share was equivalent to 3.06% of its N850 closing price on October 30.

Airtel Africa’s interim dividend of US3.1 cents, equivalent to N41.77 at its announced exchange rate, represented 0.66% of its N6,300 closing price.

These figures compare interim payouts alone.

For MTN, the question in 2027 is whether its larger data business can keep generating enough cash to support dividends after network spending and lease payments.

• “Our priorities are clear: sustain growth, protect margins, scale home broadband and rebuild fintech momentum, while creating sustainable value for all our stakeholders,” MTN Nigeria Chief Executive Officer Karl Toriola said in the company’s nine-month results.

Airtel Africa raised its interim dividend by 9.2% while stepping up spending on its network. Chief Executive Officer Sunil Taldar said the group had

• “Increased the pace of network investment to expand capacity and enhance service quality.”

At October-end prices, Airtel investors received less interim dividend income for each naira invested.

The higher price they pay for its earnings will be easier to justify if network investment and growth across its markets lift profit per share and leave room for larger payouts.