South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) faces another electoral test as voters cast ballots in municipal elections on Wednesday, with anger over corruption, unemployment, crime and failing public services threatening to deepen the party’s decline and reshape control of the country’s major cities.
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The elections, contested by more than 500 political parties, come five years after the ANC lost its majority in local government polls for the first time since the end of apartheid. Opinion polls suggest its support could fall below 40 percent nationally, while the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) is seeking to expand its influence, particularly in Johannesburg.
An Ipsos poll put the ANC’s support at 30 percent, down from the 46 percent it secured in the 2021 municipal elections. The same poll projected support for the DA at 25 percent, compared with 22 percent in the previous vote.
The figures reflect growing frustration with the performance of local authorities responsible for providing essential services, including water, electricity, sanitation and refuse collection. Persistent power cuts, unreliable water supplies, poor roads, high unemployment and rising crime have weakened confidence in the governing party, which has dominated South African politics since 1994.
At the Lawley informal settlement south of Johannesburg, long queues formed outside polling stations as residents waited to vote. For some, the prospect of another coalition government was also a source of uncertainty.
“If it goes to coalitions we don’t really have a say, they (political parties) have to compromise. The coalition thing is throwing us off,” Sabelo Zulu, a 37-year-old engineer, told Reuters while waiting to cast his ballot.
The ANC’s electoral decline has been gradual but significant. The party secured about 70 percent of the vote in the 2004 general election, but its share fell to 40 percent in 2024, forcing it to form a national government of unity with opposition parties after losing its parliamentary majority for the first time.
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President Cyril Ramaphosa has rejected suggestions that the party is in irreversible decline, insisting during its final campaign rally that support was recovering.
“What I’m seeing here is that the ANC is going higher and higher and on the 4th [of November] we will show those naysayers,” he told supporters.
However, the party’s record in local government remains a major vulnerability. A recent auditor-general report awarded clean audits, the highest standard of financial management, to only 39 of South Africa’s 257 municipalities for the 2024/25 financial year. None of Gauteng province’s three metropolitan municipalities, Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, made the list.
Ramaphosa has acknowledged the failures, saying municipal shortcomings have damaged public confidence in democratic governance.
“This election is an opportunity to turn this around,” he said.
Johannesburg emerges as the biggest battleground
The contest for Johannesburg, South Africa’s commercial centre, is expected to be one of the most closely watched races. The DA’s mayoral candidate, Helen Zille, has attracted attention with an unconventional campaign that included wading through large potholes and riding a classic BMW to her final rally.
Polls suggest the DA could emerge as the largest party in the city, although it is unlikely to secure an outright majority. That would leave it negotiating with smaller parties to form a governing coalition.
Johannesburg’s municipal problems have become a symbol of the wider crisis in local administration. Residents have faced unreliable electricity, recurring water shortages, deteriorating roads and poorly maintained public spaces. The city has also been described as effectively bankrupt amid concerns about its financial position.
Tsakani Maluleke, South Africa’s auditor-general, has warned that Johannesburg requires sustained attention to prevent further deterioration in its finances and public services.
“If we don’t do that, we are going to continue on this slide where financial health deteriorates [and] where service delivery continues to be compromised, which is what we are living,” she told lawmakers.
Other metropolitan areas expected to influence the outcome include Tshwane, which contains the administrative capital Pretoria, and eThekwini, home to the port city of Durban. Former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party is also seeking to expand its support, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal.
The DA is strongly positioned to retain control of Cape Town, where it has governed for years.
Coalition politics likely to shape local government
The elections are unlikely to produce outright majorities for a single party in several major cities, making coalition negotiations central to the formation of local governments.
The ANC’s loss of its national majority in 2024 already brought coalition politics into the centre of South African governance. However, unstable alliances and disagreements among political parties have complicated decision-making in several municipalities, with consequences for service delivery.
For voters, the concern is whether political parties can move beyond negotiations over control of municipal offices to address the everyday problems that have shaped the campaign.
In Alexandra, a township north-east of Johannesburg where the ANC has traditionally enjoyed strong support, voter frustration and apathy have weakened its appeal. Similar concerns have emerged in Soweto, where residents continue to complain about unreliable water and electricity.
“Every Monday we know we won’t have water after 2pm,” Mduduzi Makhubo, a 45-year-old Soweto resident, told the BBC.
He said he intended to vote against what he described as the arrogance of local leaders towards residents and to help change the existing system.
The results will have implications beyond municipal leadership. They could influence the balance of power ahead of South Africa’s 2029 general election and intensify the contest over the ANC’s leadership as Ramaphosa approaches the end of his term as party leader in 2027.
Voting is scheduled to close at 9pm local time on Wednesday, with results expected to be announced on Sunday. The scale of the ANC’s losses, the DA’s performance in major cities and the ability of smaller parties to shape coalition agreements will determine how South Africa’s local governments are run over the next five years.
Faith Omoboye is a foreign affairs correspondent with background in History and International relations. Her work focuses on African politics, diplomacy, and global governance.
