As the midterm dust settles, Democrats are realizing that the extraordinary scale of their victory sets them up to hold power for many years, with the door to the White House now ajar in 2028.
Such are their majorities in the House and Senate, it could take Republicans until at least 2032 to overturn them.
There will rarely be a better opportunity for Democrat hopefuls to take a tilt at the presidency, which could lead to a free-for-all with over a dozen candidates entering.
It also means a potentially bitter civil war is brewing. The party's left-wing supporters of Medicare for All were emboldened by the Senate wins of Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, and Troy Jackson in Maine, along with a series of democratic socialists being elected to the House.
However, Democratic centrists have been buoyed too by moderate candidates winning in red states including Kansas and South Carolina.
It sets up a battle for the soul of the party, playing out against the backdrop of the 2028 presidential primary, between the likely standard-bearer of the left Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and moderates like Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff.
Jon Ossoff's star is rising ahead of 2028 following a landslide victory in his Senate race in Georgia
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has not said whether she will run in 2028 but could be the standard-bearer of the left
Kamala Harris has been speaking to donors and may run, which could discourage others from entering the race, but a quiet effort to stop her doing so is underway by insiders who feel her time has passed.
The midterm results certainly offer a jump-off point for 2028 and some Democrats may seek to capitalize by announcing their candidacies early.
However, they risk misreading the message the electorate sent on November 3, which was a wholehearted repudiation of President Trump, rather than a surge of enthusiasm for Democrats.
The blue tsunami swept in, but there was not a lot of force behind it.
Only 29 percent of voters have a positive view of the Democratic Party, according to an NBC News poll on the eve of the midterms. That is lower than the Republican Party, and indeed lower even than the IRS.
Hakeem Jeffries, the new Democrat House Speaker, is viewed positively by just 18 percent of voters, and Chuck Schumer who will be the Senate Majority leader, by just 13 percent.
Exit polls showed the biggest motivating factor for voters in the midterms was a backlash against Trump and his policies, including the Iran war.
Andrei Roman, CEO of AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster in the 2024 presidential election, said: 'The 2026 midterms were about punishing Trump. They were not about how much US voters like the Democrats or their policies.
'The party that is smarter about what to do with this conclusion will win the 2028 presidential election.'
The midterms were a repudiation of President Trump rather than an enthusiastic backing of Democrats, according to exit polls
Some Democratic insiders have suggested they don't want Kamala Harris to run again in 2028 after her failure in 2024
In 2028, there will be no Trump to run against and Democrat candidates will have to put forth their own positive economic message.
However, with Trump threatening to spend the next two years extensively using his presidential veto power, Democrats will struggle to deliver on the agenda they promised in the midterms, which is focused on affordability, reversing Medicaid cuts and restoring Obamacare tax credits. Failure to do so may leave voters disillusioned by 2028.
Jeffries also faces an internal struggle as left-wingers in his own party press to impeach Trump for a third time, with little chance of securing a conviction in the Senate, and the public wanting the party to focus on the cost of living instead.
'Americans voted for change, and now Democrats must deliver,' Schumer said on Tuesday night.
'The Democrats’ problems start Wednesday morning,' said one Republican strategist.
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, New York Governor Kathy Hochul, and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez watch the Buffalo Bills play the Baltimore Ravens on TV at a bar in the Astoria neighborhood of Queens, New York, Sunday, November 1, 2026
Vice President JD Vance has distanced himself from the Iran war in the wake of the midterms
When it comes to the 2028 presidential primary, Democratic candidates will no longer be starting in Iowa as in previous cycles.
Instead, South Carolina, a state with different demographics and issues of concern to voters, will be first. Failure to gain traction there could lead to dropping out.
In recent Democratic presidential primaries, early frontrunners have not stayed the course.
Successful candidates Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter were all considered unlikely winners at the start.
Former Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is a possible 2028 candidate
Governor Gavin Newsom of California could be among those running in 2028
Possible entrants in 2028 include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Maryland Governor Wes Moore.
Others are former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, and former Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
On the Republican side Vice President JD Vance has wasted no time trying to reinforce his 2028 chances, going scorched earth on Trump's Iran war in the wake of the midterms.
'The reason we lost (the midterms) is the war. The president himself said so last night,' Vance said.
