…pre-2027 election implementation pledge faces uncertainty
After years of public clamour, political deliberations and worsening security threats, Nigeria has taken a major step towards decentralising its policing system, with 30 state assemblies approving the constitutional amendment to establish state police services.
The approval of the state police bill by 30 state assemblies and the planned ascent of President Bola Tinubu brings Nigeria closer to decentralising law enforcement, but funding, institutional capacity and political safeguards could delay deployment beyond the 2027 elections.
Although the reform could reshape security governance, new state police forces are unlikely to become operational in time to protect the 2027 general elections.
On November 3, 2026, the National Assembly confirmed that 30 of Nigeria’s 36 State Houses of Assembly had ratified the constitutional amendment establishing state police, exceeding the two-thirds threshold of 24 states required under Section 9 of the 1999 Constitution.
The development moves the reform closer to implementation after decades of political debate.
However, constitutional approval does not automatically create functioning police forces. The country must still complete the legislative process, establish institutional structures and determine how the new forces will be funded and supervised.
The Presidential Working Group on National Policing submitted its draft National Policing Bill and 29 consequential amendment bills to the Federal Ministry of Justice on October 19 for legal review.
The proposed framework seeks to establish a dual policing structure comprising federal and state police services.
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What happens next?
The immediate priority is completing the constitutional amendment process and passing the implementing legislation.
The Senate approved the constitutional amendment on June 24, followed by the House of Representatives on July 23. The proposal was transmitted to state legislatures on September 16, with 28 subsequently confirming their approval.
The National Policing Bill will establish the operational framework, including recruitment, training, funding, jurisdiction, disciplinary procedures and coordination between federal and state forces.
States will also need to enact enabling laws and establish police service commissions, training arrangements and oversight institutions before deploying officers.
This means the transition will involve more than creating police commands. Governments must demonstrate that their forces can meet national standards for recruitment, equipment, human rights protection and financial sustainability.
What should Nigerians expect from state police?
The proposed reform will establish a dual policing system rather than replace the Nigeria Police Force (NPF).
The Federal Police Service will retain national responsibilities, including federal offences and crimes involving multiple states. State police services will concentrate on security within their respective jurisdictions.
For residents, the potential benefits include faster responses to kidnapping, communal disputes and armed robbery, improved local intelligence and closer relationships between officers and communities.
State governments will have greater influence over local policing priorities, while state police service commissions will oversee recruitment, discipline and personnel management.
However, the effectiveness of this arrangement will depend on common training standards, criminal databases, firearms controls and intelligence-sharing between federal and state forces.
Experts question readiness
Despite the political momentum behind the reform, security experts warn that establishing state police will require considerably more than constitutional approval.
Charles Omole, Director-General of the Institute for Police and Security Policy Research, told Channels Television that no state would have an operational police service before the 2027 elections because of the legal, constitutional and administrative requirements.
“I do not see any state having state police before the next election,” he said, describing immediate deployment as practically impossible.
Omole argued that the government should complete the legal framework before attempting implementation, warning that simply replicating the existing federal police structure at state level could create additional operational problems.
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Onyekachi Adekoya, a security expert, identified institutional preparedness as another major obstacle.
In an interview with BusinessDay, Adekoya questioned whether states will be ready by January.
“Except everything is on the ground. It will be difficult to start in January, because it takes time and resources. Maybe the president knows something that we do not know,” he said.
Financial capacity presents an equally significant challenge. Ayọmide Akinwale, an analyst at SBM Intelligence, estimated that only four states could finance their own police services without heavy dependence on federal allocations.
“Realistically, the states that can afford to finance their own policing services without over-dependence on the revenue allocation from the federal government are just four,” he said
“Honestly, there is no way the state policing system is going to be in operation before the 2027 general election. There is the financial factor and there is the implementation factor. So those are the two concrete foundations that would make it less likely, unless they want to politicise the entire process.”, he added.
The assessment suggests that state police could emerge unevenly, with wealthier states establishing better-equipped forces while financially constrained states struggle to sustain basic operations.
Funding and political interference
States will need to invest in salaries, vehicles, communication systems, training academies, forensic laboratories, weapons and operational logistics.
The proposed framework envisages federal financial assistance and grants to support state police services. However, states will still require sustainable funding to avoid creating forces that exist administratively but lack operational capacity.
Political independence presents another risk. Giving governors greater influence over policing could improve local accountability but also create opportunities for intimidation of opposition politicians, suppression of protests and selective enforcement.
The proposed National Policing Bill seeks to address these concerns through oversight mechanisms, restrictions on unlawful political directives and procedures for resolving disputes between state police commissioners and governors.
The National Police Council is also expected to coordinate federal and state forces and establish national policing standards.
Whether these safeguards can withstand political pressure will depend on the final legislation and its enforcement.
Why 2027 elections remain exposed
The timetable makes it unlikely that state police will become operational across the federation before the 2027 elections, scheduled for January 16 and February 6.
Nigeria’s electoral history demonstrates the security challenge. The Centre for Democracy and Development recorded 109 deaths from political violence between January 1 and March 10, 2023. The International Republican Institute and National Democratic Institute separately documented 586 election-related violence incidents and 348 fatalities across 274 local government areas during the 2023 election cycle.
Kimpact Development Initiative also recorded 210 incidents of violence across Edo and Ondo between January and December 2024.
Political intimidation and attacks on party activities have continued during the build-up to 2027, with BusinessDay reporting incidents involving political gatherings, opposition activities and electoral facilities in 2026.
The existing federal police will therefore remain central to protecting voters, electoral officials, polling units and sensitive election materials in 2027.
INEC and security agencies must strengthen intelligence-sharing, identify potential flashpoints and establish rapid-response arrangements.
A long transition begins
Nigeria should expect a phased and potentially uneven rollout rather than the immediate establishment of 36 operational police forces.
The constitutional amendment will provide the legal foundation, the National Policing Bill will establish common rules, and individual states must demonstrate that they can recruit, finance, equip and supervise professional officers.
For the 2027 elections, the transformation will come too late. For the years that follow, its success will depend less on how quickly states establish police commands than on whether they can make those institutions professional, financially sustainable and accountable to citizens.
Obidike Okafor is an award winning, seasoned journalist and content consultant. Obidike has left his mark on the global stage, writing for prestigious publications in Nigeria, the UK, South Africa, Kenya, Germany, and Senegal. He also has experience as an editor, research analyst and podcaster.
