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Democrats need just four seats to grab the Senate on Tuesday. These are the 10 brawls that decide it.

Democrats need just four seats to grab the Senate on Tuesday. These are the 10 brawls that decide it.

Republicans face an uphill battle to keep their Senate majority as the midterm elections quickly approach on Tuesday. 

October polling has consistently shown that voters prefer the Democratic candidate nationally and in a host of crucial states.

President Trump himself has cast doubt on the GOP's chance at success with concerns about whether conservative voters will show up to vote this fall – especially because he's not on the ballot. 

'If I don't run, will those people go out and vote, and that's the one thing I can't tell,' Trump said recently while also urging GOP voters to act like he himself is on the ballot. 

Despite this, Republicans are trouncing Democrats in fundraising, both nationally and in key battleground races. 

It's an indication that control of Congress will be decided not by Washington insiders, but by the voters who turn out in key races in Maine, Michigan, Texas and Alaska. 

With North Carolina the likely first pick-up for Democrats on election night, read on to see what seats are to be majority-makers as scandals, scathing attacks and family dramas are shaking up races that will determine the balance of power in 2027.

10 US Senate and US House Seats most likely to determine control of Congress in November

Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, and Democrats need to pick up at least four of them to control the upper chamber in the next Congress. The following 10 Senate races are likely to determine control of the Senate.

Maine Senate: Susan Collins (R) versus Troy Jackson (D)

Susan Collins (R) and Troy Jackson (D)

GOP Senator Susan Collins is in the midst of a tough re-election battle in Maine, which has one of the oldest electorates in the country. After her previous opponent Graham Platner dropped out of the race amid a slew of allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse, which he denies, Maine Democrats selected former state Senate President Troy Jackson as their nominee. But he has also been marred by his own controversies, including a revelation that he fathered children with his second cousin. The seat is rated to be a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report after formerly being classed as one that 'leans Republican.' A CNN/SSRS poll published in the last week of October found Jackson to be up four points, with the support of 49 percent of respondents, while Collins was supported by 45 percent of those polled. But Collins has defied many a bad poll before on Election Day. 

Georgia Senate: Jon Ossoff (D) versus Mike Collins (R)

Jon Ossoff (D) and Mike Collins (R)

Incumbent Democratic golden boy Jon Ossoff is seen as one of the party's rising stars at the age of 39. He is now heavily favored in his race against scandal-plagued GOP lawmaker Mike Collins, who has been burdened by a slew of personal and personnel issues. The Daily Mail reported that Collins' son-in-law shared white supremacist rhetoric, and that his top advisors have been referred to the House Ethics Committee over an alleged misuse of funds. The seat's rating was shifted towards Democrats, from 'lean Democrat' to 'likely Democrat' by the Cook Political Report at the end of September. Ossoff has led in all recent polls, and was even given a double-digit advantage, garnering the support of 55 percent of respondents to an Echelon Insights poll conducted in the third week of October. Collins scored the backing of just 40 percent of respondents to that poll.

 New Hampshire Senate: Chris Pappas (D) versus John Sununu (R)

Chris Pappas (D) and John Sununu (R)

Outgoing incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen declined to seek re-election to a fourth term in New Hampshire, in a seat which Democrats are likely to still hold in November. Republicans are hoping for a surprise in the Granite State. The state's GOP governor, Kelly Ayotte, is highly popular, and the Sununu name is one of the most recognized in New Hampshire politics. John Sununu has been elected to both the US House and US Senate, serving a single term. He has since been in the private sector. The seat was shifted towards Democrats by the Cook Political Report, after a brief time in the 'toss-up' column. A UMass Lowell poll conducted in the first two weeks of October found Congressman Chris Pappas up by seven, with 48 percent of respondents backing him, compared to the 41 percent who back Sununu.

Ohio Senate: Jon Husted (R) versus Sherrod Brown (D)

Jon Husted (R) and Sherrod Brown (D)

Incumbent Jon Husted is running statewide to fill out the term after being appointed to Ohio's US Senate seat after JD Vance vacated the post for the vice presidency. Sherrod Brown, a 73-year-old Democrat, is mounting a comeback bid for his old Senate seat. The Daily Mail unearthed video of Brown lamenting the lack of diversity among congressional staff and commenting on ‘black and brown’ night cleaners. The seat is rated to be a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report, and polling released in late September showed a tied race. Users of the prediction market Kalshi are betting for Brown to win, by a margin of 66 percent to 34 percent. The winner needs to run again in 2028. An Echelon Insights poll conducted in the third week of October found Husted and Brown tied at 47 percent apiece.

Iowa Senate: Ashley Hinson (R) versus Josh Turek (D)

Ashley Hinson (R) and Josh Turek (D)

In Iowa, Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is on the statewide ballot for the first time, having represented a seat on the eastern side of the state since 2021, after flipping it in 2020. Josh Turek, a state lawmaker, made it out of a bruising primary after getting boosts from major Democrats. One of his biggest backers has been former President Barack Obama, who filmed a basketball-themed ad with Turek, a former Paralympic hooper. Iowa leans Republican, but Hinson could be negatively impacted by Democrat Rob Sand performing well in the gubernatorial race. The seat was rated 'lean Republican' by the Cook Political Report, but shifted to a 'toss-up' in the end of August. An Echelon Insights poll conducted in the third week of October found Turek up by two percent over Hinson, 45 percent to 43 percent.

Michigan Senate: Mike Rogers (R) versus Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Mike Rogers (R) and Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Michigan is one of the true toss-ups in November, as Progressive insurgent Abdul El-Sayed was declared the winner of a rollercoaster Democratic primary for the US Senate after squeaking by with a slim victory over Congresswoman Haley Stevens. His single-point win raises new questions about whether his strength among base voters can translate to a general election this fall, as Democrats look to protect the Democratic seat. El-Sayed fared well with Arab-American and younger voters, while Stevens nabbed support from older Democrats as well as African-American voters who do not seem ready to back El-Sayed in November. El-Sayed has tried to remedy this issue, holding a campaign rally with former Vice President Kamala Harris, with another one planned featuring former President Barack Obama. Rogers, a former House GOP lawmaker, has been biding his time as the GOP's presumptive nominee for months, waiting on a challenger to emerge from the Democratic Party. The seat is rated as a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report. A CNN/SSRS poll published in the last week of October found El-Sayed to be up seven points, with the support of 49 percent of respondents, while Rogers was supported by 42 percent of those polled.

Texas Senate: Ken Paxton (R) versus James Talarico (D)

Ken Paxton (R) and James Talarico (D)

Republicans hope to pull out a win by the skin of their teeth in Texas, where the State's Attorney General Ken Paxton won a bruising GOP primary to face off against James Talarico, a state legislator. It's looking tougher by the minute. Paxton won his primary with Trump's endorsement, ousting incumbent Senator John Cornyn, and Talarico beat out House Democratic firebrand Jasmine Crockett in his primary. Paxton has to overcome allegations of adultery amid a messy divorce, and a past impeachment from his post before being acquitted by fellow Republicans in the Texas Senate, all ahead of the general election. But he was able to make it out of the primary full of Christian evangelical voters, even with metric tons of personal baggage. Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott is running for a historic fourth consecutive four-year term in the Lone Star State, a move that was expected to drive statewide turnout for Paxton. However, even his race is looking much tighter than first anticipated. The US Senate seat is rated as a 'toss-up' by the Cook Political Report, and was formerly rated to 'lean Republican' by the Cook Political Report. A CNN/SSRS poll published in the last week of October found Talarico to be up six points, with the support of 49 percent of respondents, while Paxton was supported by 43 percent of those polled.

Nebraska Senate: Pete Ricketts (R) versus Dan Osborn (I)

Pete Ricketts (R) and Dan Osborn (I)

Independent Dan Osborn is back on the ballot in the Cornhusker state two years after losing to a Republican statewide in 2024. This time, he's facing Pete Ricketts, the state's incumbent GOP Senator and former Governor. Osborn's campaigning has been marred by several eyebrow-raising moments, including revelations that he has paid himself and family members nearly half a million dollars in campaign funds, and that his daughter participates in NSFW platforms. Ricketts is likely to hold the seat in November, and the seat is rated 'likely Republican' by the Cook Political Report. An Echelon Insights poll conducted in the third week of October found Ricketts up by one percent over Osborn, 47 percent to 46 percent.

Alaska Senate: Dan Sullivan (R) versus Mary Peltola (D)

Dan S Sullivan (R) and Mary Peltola (D)

Republican Dan Sullivan, Alaska’s junior senator since 2015, faces former Congresswoman Mary Peltola, whose moderate House record makes her a dangerous opponent. Peltola beat him in August’s open primary, 48.2 percent to 42.9. Voters will also find a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot, a retired teacher, and ranked-choice voting makes the race even harder to call. A bombshell report from the New York Times revealed that allies of Peltola did in fact work to recruit a second Dan Sullivan to run in an attempt to confuse voters. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up. An InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters on October 9 and 10 put Peltola ahead 50 percent to 48.

Kansas Senate: Roger Marshall (R) versus Adam Hamilton (D)

Roger Marshall (R) versus Adam Hamilton (D) 

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Incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall is fighting for his career to secure a seat that Democrats have not won in nearly 100 years. 

He's facing Adam Hamilton, a pastor in one of the state's largest churches in the Kansas City metro area. 

Marshall's campaigning has been marred by several eyebrow-raising moments, including revelations that the former OB-GYN who practiced in Great Bend for two decades before entering Congress, sued more than 700 of his patients over unpaid medical bills, the New York Times revealed last month. 

The senator has dismissed the report as a Democrat-planted hit job, insisting only 'a very small, small, small fraction of the unpaid bills even went to collections.' 

President Trump has rallied behind Marshall, calling him 'great, a wonderful person, given a 'bum rap' because he was mandated by Law to request money owed from patients,' in a Truth Social post last week. 

The seat was shifted to 'toss up' from 'lean Republican' by the Cook Political Report in the first week of October. A CNN/SSRS poll published in the last week of October found Hamilton to have the support of 49 percent of respondents, while Marshall was supported by 45 percent of those polled. 

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Perez Hilton's family and team have delivered an update on his recovery as he remains in treatment three months after he was seen self-harming with a knife on a horrific live stream.

On Tuesday, PerezHilton.com posted a note addressing the 48-year-old gossip blogger's ongoing treatment, which they said had progressed to its 'next phase' in a cautiously optimistic update.

The post also included a sweet photo of Hilton's three children – son Mario III, 13; and daughters Mia, 11; and Mayte, eight – as they went trick-or-treating while their father remained in treatment.

The Daily Mail has reached out to Hilton's representative for comment but has not yet received a response. 

'It’s been three months since our family began navigating this difficult time. While it hasn’t been easy, we’re grateful to have some positive news to share about Perez’s recovery,' the update began.

Hilton's family and team revealed that he had 'transitioned into the next phase of his treatment' in October. 

On Tuesday, Perez Hilton's website posted a note addressing the 48-year-old gossip blogger's ongoing treatment, which they said had progressed to its 'next phase' in a cautiously optimistic update; above, in August 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada

Hilton is now in a 'partial hospitalization program (PHP), while staying in supportive housing.' Despite the change of scenery, he 'continues to receive mental health care and support' and has been 'able to spend time with his family during approved visits...'; Above, in 2022 in Santa Monica, California

The celebrity blogger is now in a 'partial hospitalization program (PHP), while staying in supportive housing.' 

Despite the change of scenery, Hilton 'continues to receive mental health care and support.'

Those close to Hilton noted that he had been 'able to spend time with his family during approved visits...'

Among those was a gathering to celebrate his mother's 73rd birthday, which also reunited him with his children.

'These moments together have meant so much to everyone,' his loved ones wrote.

They added that Hilton's post-crisis ordeal has 'been a learning process for our family.' 

'Like many people who have never been through something like this, we didn’t fully understand just how much time, care, and support recovery from a serious mental health crisis can require,' they admitted. 

After speaking with people who had suffered similar mental-health crises, Hilton's family came 'to understand that getting through the initial crisis is only the beginning.'

The post also included a sweet photo (above) of Hilton's three children – son Mario III, 13; and daughters Mia, 11; and Mayte, eight – as they went trick-or-treating while their father remained in treatment

Although they acknowledged that many of Hilton's fans wanted to know when he would be back home with his family, they noted that there was no 'confirmed date' for him to be discharged; above, in October 2025 in Las Vegas

'There’s no one-size-fits-all timeline, and we’re learning the importance of taking things one step at a time,' they said.

Although they acknowledged that many of Hilton's fans wanted to know when he would be back home with his family, they noted that there was no 'confirmed date' for him to be discharged.

However, they were 'hopeful that day is getting closer.' 

'Most importantly, we want him to have the time and support he needs to continue making progress,' those close to Hilton continued.

They added that his children remained 'well' and were 'staying busy with school, their activities, and everyday life.'

'They also had a wonderful Halloween!' the update added. 'After everything they’ve been through, seeing them smiling, having fun, and simply enjoying being kids has been especially meaningful.'

Hilton's family and team concluded with thanks to his fans who had 'continued to check in and send kind messages.'

'We’re incredibly grateful for your love, compassion, and support. It means so much to our family,' they wrote.

Hilton's family revealed in an update from late September that he had begun to have supervised visits with his children and mother; above, in January 2025 in Las Vegas 

'They were first able to spend time together through a few video calls, and since then, Perez has also been able to see his children and his mom a few times for short, supervised visits at the facility,' the statement said; Above, with (L–R) Mario, Mia and Mayte in 2020 in Burbank

The newest update comes after Hilton's website shared another note in late September that revealed he had been having short 'supervised' visits with his children and his mother, who has been caring for them while he remains at a residential treatment center.

'They were first able to spend time together through a few video calls, and since then, Perez has also been able to see his children and his mom a few times for short, supervised visits at the facility,' the statement said.

'Seeing his children in person has meant an enormous amount to Perez,' it continued. 'There have definitely been a lot of emotions for everyone, but being able to spend that time together has been incredibly meaningful and healing.'

That update followed a longtime friend of Hilton's setting up a fundraiser to help support his mother as she cares for his three children.

According to the statement, Hilton's team has had only 'limited' communication with him recently. 

However, they said the 'priority isn’t constant communication with family, but rather giving him the time and space to focus on his care and continue making progress.'

'He’s continuing to work with his care team on understanding what led to his mental health crisis, recognizing warning signs, learning better ways to cope, and working through everything that brought him to this point,' they continued.

Hilton's team said they still don't know when he will be able to move on from the residential facility to go home and transfer to an outpatient program. 

'He’s continuing to work with his care team on understanding what led to his mental health crisis, recognizing warning signs, learning better ways to cope, and working through everything that brought him to this point,' his team said; Above, Hilton is pictured during an earlier, unrelated hospitalization

'Nobody wants to rush anything. For now, we’re all taking things one day at a time,' they said. 

'We’re grateful for the progress Perez has made so far, and especially grateful that he and his children have been able to spend some time together again,' his team added. 

The statement also updated Hilton's fans on an official fundraiser that his longtime friend, Tony-winning producer Tom D'Angora, had set up to assist his family.

'We want to thank Perez’s longtime friend Tom D’Angora again for setting up the GoFundMe to help Perez’s mom continue to care for his three children during this time,' the statement read. 'We also want to thank everyone who has donated, sent messages, and continued to send well wishes.'

They added that Hilton's mother, Teresita Lavandeira, 'has been incredibly touched and honestly overwhelmed by everyone’s generosity. It’s meant so much to her and to the kids.'

Now, with the support of Hilton's family, D'Angora is doing his part to raise funds for them during this difficult time. 

'I’ve known Perez Hilton (Mario) for 14 years and we have become very close friends, and during that time, he and his family have come to mean a great deal to me,' D'Angora said after launching the GoFundMe. 'With the support of his friends, I’m organizing this fundraiser to help his mother and his three children, Mario, Mia, and Mayte, during his treatment and recovery. 

'Perez is currently receiving full-time residential treatment while he focuses on his mental health and recovery. This process will take time. In the meantime, his mother has stepped in to care for his children full-time and give them the stability and support they need.' 

The statement included an updated on a GoFundMe set up by Hilton's long-time friend Tom D’Angora to benefit the blogger's family as he continues treatment; Above, D'Angora and Hilton in 2012 in NYC

D'Angora stressed that none of the money raised will be 'used for Perez personally.' 'All funds raised will benefit Perez’s mother and children only and help cover the additional costs of caring for three kids full-time'; Above, Hilton and mom Teresita Lavandeira with Mario and Mia in 2018 in Culver City

'Like any grandmother who suddenly finds herself responsible for raising three growing children, she’s also taken on significant and unexpected expenses,' D'Angora writes. 'She’s put much of her own life on hold to make sure the kids can continue going to school, participating in their normal activities, and having as much consistency as possible during an incredibly difficult time.'

D'Angora stressed that none of the money raised will be 'used for Perez personally.'

'All funds raised will benefit Perez’s mother and children only and help cover the additional costs of caring for three kids full-time. None of the money will be used for Perez personally,' he said. 

'It’s been heartbreaking to watch someone I care about very much, along with his entire family who I also care very deeply for, go through this. More than anything, I want to see Perez recover and return to a happy and fulfilling life as a father, son, brother, and a great friend.

'Every contribution, no matter the amount, will help support the kids and their grandmother during the months ahead. If you’re not in a position to donate, simply sharing this fundraiser would also mean a great deal.

'Thank you for helping care for the people Perez loves most while he does the difficult work of getting better.'

The fundraiser came with the blessing of Hilton's family, who posted a link to the GoFundMe on their official website. 

The update came not long after Hilton's family announced the blogger had entered a residential treatment program 'where he can focus fully on his mental health and recovery.'

Tom said he had become 'very close friends' with Hilton since first meeting him 14 years ago

'This was an important next step, but there's still a long road ahead,' his loved ones shared.

'Perez is expected to remain in residential treatment for several more weeks, potentially longer, depending on what his treatment team believes is best for his recovery.'

Hilton, whose real name is Mario Armando Lavandeira Jr, does not have access to a phone or laptop.

His communication with friends and family has been restricted during this crucial time of recovery.

Hilton's three children are currently living in Miami, Florida, under the temporary custody of his mother.

'His three children remain together, safe, and doing well in the care of their grandmother, who has stepped in to care for them full-time during this unexpected chapter,' Hilton's relatives continued.

'Our family's priority continues to be giving them as much stability, routine, and "normalcy" as possible while their dad focuses on his recovery. We are incredibly grateful for everything their grandmother is doing for them.'

The internet personality is allowed to see his children but those visits must be supervised by an approved family member or a therapist, TMZ reported, citing court documents.

The fundraiser comes with the blessing of Hilton's family, who posted a link to the GoFundMe on their official website

Hilton must obtain 'psychiatric clearance' prior to those visits, according to the outlet.

The crisis occurred several months after Hilton moved from Las Vegas back to his hometown of Miami, and he was living there with his children and his mother at the time of the shocking livestream incident.

On August 4, he was found by his sister, Barbara Lavandeira, inside the home's bathroom covered in blood and holding a box cutter.

Hilton had been filming a live broadcast on TikTok during which he appeared to engage in self-harm.

The livestream continued for about 15 minutes before TikTok stopped the feed, and Hilton's TikTok account has since been banned by the platform.

Sheriff's deputies responded to the scene following numerous calls from concerned viewers and the social media site's own moderation team.

Hilton was treated for lacerations and an overdose before being transported to hospital under Florida's Baker Act, a state law that allows for the temporary and involuntary hold of individuals suffering a mental health crisis.

His family confirmed that he experienced significant blood loss and multiple broken bones.

'Perez is alive, he's getting help, and he's surrounded by people who want to see him healthy and happy again,' their statement concluded.

'Right now, those are the things that matter most.' 

If you or someone you know needs help in the US, please call or text the confidential 24/7 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline on 988.If you are in the UK, call Samaritans on 116 123 for free. If you are in Australia, call Lifeline 13 11 14 or Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800.

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