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Alarming abuse reports, chained up activists and bitter rematches: The 10 House races that could flip Congress

Alarming abuse reports, chained up activists and bitter rematches: The 10 House races that could flip Congress

Republicans are on course to lose the House of Representatives in less than a week, and even President Donald Trump fears his voters will stay home.

The GOP has controlled the White House, Senate and House since Trump returned to power in January 2025. But polling throughout the midterm cycle has consistently shown voters favoring Democrats, and the gap has widened in recent months.

Trump has openly questioned whether conservatives will turn out when his name isn’t on the ballot.

‘If I don’t run, will those people go out and vote, and that’s the one thing I can’t tell,’ he said recently, urging Republicans to vote as if he were running.

The party does hold one big advantage: money. Republicans are outraising Democrats nationally and in key battlegrounds. But cash can’t buy turnout, and the House will be won or lost in a handful of swing districts.

Read on for the seats most likely to decide the majority, where scandals, shocking allegations and family feuds are upending the closest races.

10 US Senate and US House Seats most likely to determine control of Congress in November

President Donald Trump is likely to be working without a GOP majority in the US House of Representatives for the last two years of his second term

Republicans currently have a majority in the US House of Representatives, 218 to 212. The lower chamber currently has four vacancies, three Democratic and one Republican. 

To gain a majority, Democrats need to flip at least three seats. 

These are the tightest races in the lead-up to November involving missing congressmen, shocking abuse claims, and more.

New Jersey’s 7th District: Rep. Tom Kean Jr (R) versus Rebecca Bennett (D)

Rep. Tom Kean Jr (R) and Rebecca Bennett (D) 

Incumbent Republican Congressman Tom Kean Jr of New Jersey missed over 140 consecutive votes earlier this year in an absence he attributed to depression upon his return to Washington. During the hiatus, he was overly cryptic, questioned by both local and national media about his secrecy, and raised doubts about his ability to serve his constituents. In November, Kean faces Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who easily bested a trio of other Democrats for the nomination. The seat was moved from 'toss up'  to 'lean Democrat' by the Cook Political Report at the end of September.

Ohio's 7th District: Rep. Max Miller (R) versus Brian Poindexter (D)

Rep. Max Miller (R) and Brian Poindexter (D)

The drama is overflowing in Ohio's 7th District as domestic 'abuse' allegations plague the run of Trump-backed Max Miller, who currently holds the seat. His ex-wife Emily Moreno, the daughter of sitting Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio, has made scathing claims against him involving their two-year-old daughter, which he has denied. However, his standing with voters has taken a steep dive since the physical abuse allegations, first reported by the Daily Mail, came to light. The Cook Political Report rates this seat as a 'toss up' and recent polling showed Miller trailing by about 8 points.

Pennsylvania’s 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R) versus Janelle Stelson (D) 

Rep. Scott Perry (R) and Janelle Stelson (D)

Incumbent Republican Scott Perry is set for a rematch with Janelle Stelson. He beat her by the skin of his teeth in 2024, with 50.5 percent of the vote to his opponent's 49.3 percent. Perry is a member of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus, raising questions about how well he matches the swing district. The seat was shifted to 'lean Democrat' in the first week of October after being ranked as a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report. A New York Times/Siena University poll conducted for The Philadelphia Inquirer in the third week of October found the two candidates tied at 48 percent each.

Virginia’s 2nd District: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) versus Former Representative Elaine Luria (D)

Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) versus Former Representative Elaine Luria (D)

Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans is set for another face-off with Democrat Elaine Luria, whom she wrested Virginia's Second District from in 2022. Luria represented the seat for two terms after winning it in a midterm election in 2018 during the last time Trump was in the White House, ousting Republican Scott Taylor. Both Kiggans and Luria are veterans, having served in the US Navy, and they seek to represent a seat that is home to nearly 90,000 veterans. The seat is rated to 'lean Democrat' after shifting from a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report. A poll conducted by Christopher Newport University in the first week of October found Luria up by three percent, 46 to 43. Ten percent of respondents to the CNU poll were undecided at the time.

New York's 17th District: Mike Lawler (R) versus Cait Conley (D)

Mike Lawler (R) and Cait Conley (D)

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A big race to keep an eye on is incumbent Republican Mike Lawler versus veteran Cait Conley in New York. Lawler is under scrutiny for his close friendship with Max Miller, who is facing abuse allegations, and lavish spending on the campaign trail. He also recently admitted that he was 'arrested for DWI' in his younger days, and a copy of the decade-old police report by the Daily Mail showed a record of reckless actions by Lawler at the time. He was recorded as having blood-alcohol content of .14, nearly double the state legal limit of .08 at the time of the incident. Unlike some of his GOP colleagues, Lawler has embraced President Donald Trump, and was rewarded with a prime speaking spot at the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas in September. Lawler was given a surprising assist in the form of a ringing endorsement from one outgoing Democratic colleague, Mainer Jared Golden, who wrote a letter backing Lawler which was published in his hometown paper at the end of September. The seat is rated 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report. 

Michigan’s 7th District: Rep. Tom Barrett (R) versus William Lawrence (D)

Rep. Tom Barrett (R) and William Lawrence (D)

Freshman Republican Tom Barrett has an uphill battle in his first-ever re-election bid this November. He is facing off against William Lawrence, a progressive climate organizer with a 13-year-old felony case related to his activism. During a 2013 protest at an Enbridge Energy pipeline work site, Lawrence chained himself to construction equipment and refused to leave. He was charged with resisting and obstructing police, which is a felony, and the conviction was later expunged. The seat is rated to be a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report. An Emerson College poll from mid-October found Lawrence up seven, with 53 percent to Barrett's 45 percent.

Iowa’s 1st District: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) versus Christina Bohannan (D)

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) and Christina Bohannan (D)

Incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is no stranger to tough elections. After winning her first federal race in 2020 by 6 votes, Miller-Meeks, like Kiggans, has had a tough job keeping both her base happy and working to satisfy independent voters. This time around, she is facing Christina Bohannan, a lawyer, engineer, and former State Representative. Miller-Meeks, like Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, could be hurt by a strong turnout for Democrat Rob Sand in the governor's race if his supporters vote the whole ballot. The seat was shifted to 'lean Democrat' in the first week of October after being ranked as a 'toss up' by the Cook Political Report.

Texas’ 34th District: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) versus Eric Flores (R)

Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) and Eric Flores (R)

Incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is facing Republican Eric Flores in a redrawn seat this November. The district has trended towards the GOP in recent years, and Flores believes that voters don't share Democratic opposition to Trump's immigration policies in a heavily Hispanic region. Gonzalez, meanwhile, has characterized Trump's approach as 'America Last.' The seat is rated to 'lean Democrat' after shifting from a 'toss up' per the Cook Political Report. A poll conducted by the Washington Post and George Mason University's Schar School of Government in mid-October found Gonzalez up 7 points, with 50 percent of respondents supporting him, compared to 43 percent who backed Flores.

Nebraska’s 2nd District: Denise Powell (D) versus Brinker Harding (R) 

Denise Powell (D) and Brinker Harding (R)

Republican Congressman and retired US Air Force Brigadier General Don Bacon chose not to seek re-election in 2026, after winning his 2024 race for the GOP despite Kamala Harris winning his district by five points and its electoral vote. That leaves one of the most vulnerable GOP House seats in the country open with no incumbent. Republican Brinker Harding, an Omaha City Councilman, faces off against Denise Powell, a mom and small business owner, in November for Bacon's seat. The seat was shifted to 'likely Democrat' in the first week of October after being ranked to 'lean Democrat' by the Cook Political Report.

California’s 22nd District: Rep. David Valadao (R) versus Randy Villegas (D) 

Rep. David Valadao (R) and Randy Villegas (D)

Incumbent Republican David Valadao has maintained an independent streak throughout his six terms in the US House of Representatives. If reelected, he would be the only GOP member of the House still serving in the second half of Trump's second term, despite having voted to impeach Trump in 2021. In November, Valadao faces Randy Villegas, an educator and activist. The seat is rated a 'toss-up' by the Cook Political Report. 

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Perez Hilton's family and team have delivered an update on his recovery as he remains in treatment three months after he was seen self-harming with a knife on a horrific live stream.

On Tuesday, PerezHilton.com posted a note addressing the 48-year-old gossip blogger's ongoing treatment, which they said had progressed to its 'next phase' in a cautiously optimistic update.

The post also included a sweet photo of Hilton's three children – son Mario III, 13; and daughters Mia, 11; and Mayte, eight – as they went trick-or-treating while their father remained in treatment.

The Daily Mail has reached out to Hilton's representative for comment but has not yet received a response. 

'It’s been three months since our family began navigating this difficult time. While it hasn’t been easy, we’re grateful to have some positive news to share about Perez’s recovery,' the update began.

Hilton's family and team revealed that he had 'transitioned into the next phase of his treatment' in October. 

On Tuesday, Perez Hilton's website posted a note addressing the 48-year-old gossip blogger's ongoing treatment, which they said had progressed to its 'next phase' in a cautiously optimistic update; above, in August 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada

Hilton is now in a 'partial hospitalization program (PHP), while staying in supportive housing.' Despite the change of scenery, he 'continues to receive mental health care and support' and has been 'able to spend time with his family during approved visits...'; Above, in 2022 in Santa Monica, California

The celebrity blogger is now in a 'partial hospitalization program (PHP), while staying in supportive housing.' 

Despite the change of scenery, Hilton 'continues to receive mental health care and support.'

Those close to Hilton noted that he had been 'able to spend time with his family during approved visits...'

Among those was a gathering to celebrate his mother's 73rd birthday, which also reunited him with his children.

'These moments together have meant so much to everyone,' his loved ones wrote.

They added that Hilton's post-crisis ordeal has 'been a learning process for our family.' 

'Like many people who have never been through something like this, we didn’t fully understand just how much time, care, and support recovery from a serious mental health crisis can require,' they admitted. 

After speaking with people who had suffered similar mental-health crises, Hilton's family came 'to understand that getting through the initial crisis is only the beginning.'

The post also included a sweet photo (above) of Hilton's three children – son Mario III, 13; and daughters Mia, 11; and Mayte, eight – as they went trick-or-treating while their father remained in treatment

Although they acknowledged that many of Hilton's fans wanted to know when he would be back home with his family, they noted that there was no 'confirmed date' for him to be discharged; above, in October 2025 in Las Vegas

'There’s no one-size-fits-all timeline, and we’re learning the importance of taking things one step at a time,' they said.

Although they acknowledged that many of Hilton's fans wanted to know when he would be back home with his family, they noted that there was no 'confirmed date' for him to be discharged.

However, they were 'hopeful that day is getting closer.' 

'Most importantly, we want him to have the time and support he needs to continue making progress,' those close to Hilton continued.

They added that his children remained 'well' and were 'staying busy with school, their activities, and everyday life.'

'They also had a wonderful Halloween!' the update added. 'After everything they’ve been through, seeing them smiling, having fun, and simply enjoying being kids has been especially meaningful.'

Hilton's family and team concluded with thanks to his fans who had 'continued to check in and send kind messages.'

'We’re incredibly grateful for your love, compassion, and support. It means so much to our family,' they wrote.

Hilton's family revealed in an update from late September that he had begun to have supervised visits with his children and mother; above, in January 2025 in Las Vegas 

'They were first able to spend time together through a few video calls, and since then, Perez has also been able to see his children and his mom a few times for short, supervised visits at the facility,' the statement said; Above, with (L–R) Mario, Mia and Mayte in 2020 in Burbank

The newest update comes after Hilton's website shared another note in late September that revealed he had been having short 'supervised' visits with his children and his mother, who has been caring for them while he remains at a residential treatment center.

'They were first able to spend time together through a few video calls, and since then, Perez has also been able to see his children and his mom a few times for short, supervised visits at the facility,' the statement said.

'Seeing his children in person has meant an enormous amount to Perez,' it continued. 'There have definitely been a lot of emotions for everyone, but being able to spend that time together has been incredibly meaningful and healing.'

That update followed a longtime friend of Hilton's setting up a fundraiser to help support his mother as she cares for his three children.

According to the statement, Hilton's team has had only 'limited' communication with him recently. 

However, they said the 'priority isn’t constant communication with family, but rather giving him the time and space to focus on his care and continue making progress.'

'He’s continuing to work with his care team on understanding what led to his mental health crisis, recognizing warning signs, learning better ways to cope, and working through everything that brought him to this point,' they continued.

Hilton's team said they still don't know when he will be able to move on from the residential facility to go home and transfer to an outpatient program. 

'He’s continuing to work with his care team on understanding what led to his mental health crisis, recognizing warning signs, learning better ways to cope, and working through everything that brought him to this point,' his team said; Above, Hilton is pictured during an earlier, unrelated hospitalization

'Nobody wants to rush anything. For now, we’re all taking things one day at a time,' they said. 

'We’re grateful for the progress Perez has made so far, and especially grateful that he and his children have been able to spend some time together again,' his team added. 

The statement also updated Hilton's fans on an official fundraiser that his longtime friend, Tony-winning producer Tom D'Angora, had set up to assist his family.

'We want to thank Perez’s longtime friend Tom D’Angora again for setting up the GoFundMe to help Perez’s mom continue to care for his three children during this time,' the statement read. 'We also want to thank everyone who has donated, sent messages, and continued to send well wishes.'

They added that Hilton's mother, Teresita Lavandeira, 'has been incredibly touched and honestly overwhelmed by everyone’s generosity. It’s meant so much to her and to the kids.'

Now, with the support of Hilton's family, D'Angora is doing his part to raise funds for them during this difficult time. 

'I’ve known Perez Hilton (Mario) for 14 years and we have become very close friends, and during that time, he and his family have come to mean a great deal to me,' D'Angora said after launching the GoFundMe. 'With the support of his friends, I’m organizing this fundraiser to help his mother and his three children, Mario, Mia, and Mayte, during his treatment and recovery. 

'Perez is currently receiving full-time residential treatment while he focuses on his mental health and recovery. This process will take time. In the meantime, his mother has stepped in to care for his children full-time and give them the stability and support they need.' 

The statement included an updated on a GoFundMe set up by Hilton's long-time friend Tom D’Angora to benefit the blogger's family as he continues treatment; Above, D'Angora and Hilton in 2012 in NYC

D'Angora stressed that none of the money raised will be 'used for Perez personally.' 'All funds raised will benefit Perez’s mother and children only and help cover the additional costs of caring for three kids full-time'; Above, Hilton and mom Teresita Lavandeira with Mario and Mia in 2018 in Culver City

'Like any grandmother who suddenly finds herself responsible for raising three growing children, she’s also taken on significant and unexpected expenses,' D'Angora writes. 'She’s put much of her own life on hold to make sure the kids can continue going to school, participating in their normal activities, and having as much consistency as possible during an incredibly difficult time.'

D'Angora stressed that none of the money raised will be 'used for Perez personally.'

'All funds raised will benefit Perez’s mother and children only and help cover the additional costs of caring for three kids full-time. None of the money will be used for Perez personally,' he said. 

'It’s been heartbreaking to watch someone I care about very much, along with his entire family who I also care very deeply for, go through this. More than anything, I want to see Perez recover and return to a happy and fulfilling life as a father, son, brother, and a great friend.

'Every contribution, no matter the amount, will help support the kids and their grandmother during the months ahead. If you’re not in a position to donate, simply sharing this fundraiser would also mean a great deal.

'Thank you for helping care for the people Perez loves most while he does the difficult work of getting better.'

The fundraiser came with the blessing of Hilton's family, who posted a link to the GoFundMe on their official website. 

The update came not long after Hilton's family announced the blogger had entered a residential treatment program 'where he can focus fully on his mental health and recovery.'

Tom said he had become 'very close friends' with Hilton since first meeting him 14 years ago

'This was an important next step, but there's still a long road ahead,' his loved ones shared.

'Perez is expected to remain in residential treatment for several more weeks, potentially longer, depending on what his treatment team believes is best for his recovery.'

Hilton, whose real name is Mario Armando Lavandeira Jr, does not have access to a phone or laptop.

His communication with friends and family has been restricted during this crucial time of recovery.

Hilton's three children are currently living in Miami, Florida, under the temporary custody of his mother.

'His three children remain together, safe, and doing well in the care of their grandmother, who has stepped in to care for them full-time during this unexpected chapter,' Hilton's relatives continued.

'Our family's priority continues to be giving them as much stability, routine, and "normalcy" as possible while their dad focuses on his recovery. We are incredibly grateful for everything their grandmother is doing for them.'

The internet personality is allowed to see his children but those visits must be supervised by an approved family member or a therapist, TMZ reported, citing court documents.

The fundraiser comes with the blessing of Hilton's family, who posted a link to the GoFundMe on their official website

Hilton must obtain 'psychiatric clearance' prior to those visits, according to the outlet.

The crisis occurred several months after Hilton moved from Las Vegas back to his hometown of Miami, and he was living there with his children and his mother at the time of the shocking livestream incident.

On August 4, he was found by his sister, Barbara Lavandeira, inside the home's bathroom covered in blood and holding a box cutter.

Hilton had been filming a live broadcast on TikTok during which he appeared to engage in self-harm.

The livestream continued for about 15 minutes before TikTok stopped the feed, and Hilton's TikTok account has since been banned by the platform.

Sheriff's deputies responded to the scene following numerous calls from concerned viewers and the social media site's own moderation team.

Hilton was treated for lacerations and an overdose before being transported to hospital under Florida's Baker Act, a state law that allows for the temporary and involuntary hold of individuals suffering a mental health crisis.

His family confirmed that he experienced significant blood loss and multiple broken bones.

'Perez is alive, he's getting help, and he's surrounded by people who want to see him healthy and happy again,' their statement concluded.

'Right now, those are the things that matter most.' 

If you or someone you know needs help in the US, please call or text the confidential 24/7 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline on 988.If you are in the UK, call Samaritans on 116 123 for free. If you are in Australia, call Lifeline 13 11 14 or Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800.

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