Nigeria lost 3.33 million barrels of crude oil to theft in 2025, with nearly two-thirds of the reported losses occurring in the final three months, as the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s revenue collection declined by N2.14tn, The PUNCH reports.

The commission’s 2025 annual report, released on Thursday, showed that crude oil and gas revenue collections fell from N12.56tn in 2024 to N10.42tn in 2025, representing a 17.03 per cent decline, despite increases in receipts from gas flare penalties, signature bonuses and concession rentals.

Data from the commission’s 2025 report showed that crude theft rose sharply in the fourth quarter, when 2.19 million barrels were recorded. This represented 65.8 per cent of the total volume reported for the year and was almost five times the 440,434 barrels recorded in the third quarter.

The commission recorded 896,471 barrels of crude theft in the first quarter, while its second-quarter report showed a negative figure of 200,400 barrels, which it attributed to excess volumes identified during reconciliation.

The combined quarterly figures brought reported losses for the year to approximately 3.33 million barrels.

The report read, “Nigeria recorded 896,471 barrels of crude oil theft in the first quarter.

The second quarter recorded a negative 200,400 barrels, which the commission described as an excess volume in its reconciliation. Reported theft stood at 440,434 barrels in the third quarter. The fourth quarter recorded 2.19 million barrels, the highest quarterly volume of the year.”

The losses came despite the huge financial burden of securing the country’s petroleum assets. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reported energy security costs of N8.67tn in 2025, compared with about N3.1tn in 2024.

The expenditure reflects the cost of interventions to protect oil and gas infrastructure and support national energy security, although the entire amount cannot be attributed solely to combating crude theft.

 The persistence of theft alongside the rising security costs raises questions about the effectiveness of measures to protect production facilities and crude evacuation infrastructure.

 The losses also represent crude that could otherwise have contributed to government revenue, export earnings and the supply of feedstock to domestic refineries.

 Despite the reported theft, Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate in 2025. Quarterly production stood at 132.70 million barrels in the first quarter, 137.69 million in the second, 137.45 million in the third and 133.23 million in the fourth quarter. The country also produced 48.52 million barrels of unblended condensate during the year.

 On revenue, oil and gas royalties, including Project Gazelle and NNPC receivables, remained the largest contributor, generating N8.97tn in 2025, compared with N11.08tn in 2024. The decline of N2.11tn represented a 19.03 per cent reduction.

 “The total approved budget for 2025 was N645,462,335,500.80, with total income of  N342,814,462,174.97 and total expenditure was N304,533,385,103. Total revenue generated was N10,424,478,448,682.40, which is 63 per cent of projected revenue of N16,538,206,608,738.00.

“357 oil spill incidents were reported. 49.5 per cent of the spills were a result of sabotage. There was an increase of 64.74 per cent in revenue in 2024 over 2023 and a decrease of 20.53 per cent in 2025 over 2024 revenues,” the report added.

 However, receipts from gas flare penalties increased from N391.26bn to N611.42bn, representing a 56.27 per cent rise.

 Signature bonuses also increased by 44.2 per cent, from N369.58bn in 2024 to N532.94bn in 2025, while concession rentals rose by 61.1 per cent, from N23.71bn to N38.19bn.

 Miscellaneous revenue increased from N35.20bn to N46.44bn. Conversely, royalty by price declined from N313.72bn to N213.41bn, while lease renewal receipts fell sharply from N230.73bn to N8.23bn.

 The commission’s total income from cost of revenue collection and internally generated revenue, however, increased by 21.85 per cent to N342.81bn in 2025, compared with N281.34bn in 2024.

 The report showed that cost of revenue collection contributed N335.45bn, while internally generated revenue accounted for N7.36bn.

 The commission generated N10.42tn against a projected revenue target of N16.54tn, representing 63 per cent performance.

 Beyond crude theft, the report documented 357 oil spill incidents during the year, with sabotage accounting for 49.5 per cent of the reported cases.