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Iran war, inflation or Trump fatigue: What drove Democrats' midterm surge?
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Published 11/4/2026 12:04:53 AM
Iran war, inflation or Trump fatigue: What drove Democrats' midterm surge?
US voters on Tuesday delivered a stunning rubuke to President Donald Trump and his broader agenda. From Texas and South Carolina to Ohio and Kansas, Democrats broke through Republican strongholds, overturned seats that had remained out of their reach for decades and made history in several states.
The scale of the gains was particularly striking in places Trump had comfortably carried in the 2024 presidential election, suggesting that the voter bloc which helped him return to the White House is beginning to fracture.
With Democrats projected to take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the midterm results represent one of the most significant political reversals of Trump's presidency. But what exactly drove the resurgence? Was it the economic fallout of his policies, the unpopular war with Iran, or growing voter fatigue with the president himself?
Inflation, tariffs and Iran war take centre stageThe economy emerged as one of the biggest factors shaping voters' decisions.
Trump returned to the White House in 2024 promising to tackle inflation and improve living standards. However, persistent high prices, tariffs on foreign goods and the economic consequences of the war with Iran appear to have undermined that promise.
Nearly nine in 10 voters identified the cost of living as a crucial or major factor in their vote, according to exit polls conducted by SSRS for a consortium of US media organisations.
Nearly two-thirds blamed Trump for high prices, while around six in 10 said his policies had made the economy worse.
The dissatisfaction extended beyond household expenses. Around three-quarters of voters said they were angry or dissatisfied with the direction of the country, while concerns about government corruption and Trump's conduct also featured prominently.
The war with Iran added another layer of discontent, with voters increasingly questioning the administration's priorities as economic pressures mounted. Trump's attempts to shift attention towards Democratic candidates, portraying them as radical or dangerous, failed to displace the issue that mattered most to many Americans: the cost of everyday essentials.
The election also became a referendum on Trump himself. Despite repeatedly urging voters to treat the midterms as a verdict on his presidency, the Republican leader ended up making his party's electoral challenge considerably harder.
CNN's voter poll showed that more than six in 10 voters disapproved of Trump's performance, with a majority strongly disapproving. Around six in 10 voters in the AP Voter Poll also believed Trump prioritised his personal interests over those of the country. About 70% wanted Congress to exercise greater checks and balances on the presidency.
His intervention in several state-level contests also failed to deliver. Candidates backed by Trump, including Ken Paxton in Texas and Darline Graham in South Carolina, suffered defeats. Republicans also lost ground in states where the president had personally campaigned repeatedly.
The Republican coalition that powered Trump's 2024 victory appeared to be weakening. Young voters, Hispanics and other groups that had shifted towards the Republicans two years ago showed signs of moving back towards Democrats. Around seven in 10 voters under 30 supported Democratic candidates in their local House races, while roughly six in 10 Hispanic voters backed Democrats.
From Texas to South Carolina: A blue wave beyond expectationsThe Democrats' gains were not confined to traditionally competitive states. Their victories in Republican strongholds underlined the scale of the political shift.
In Texas, James Talarico's victory marked the first Democratic Senate win in the state in 38 years. In South Carolina, Annie Andrews defeated Trump's preferred candidate, Darline Graham, delivering Democrats a Senate victory in a state Trump had won by 18 percentage points in 2024.
Ohio also delivered a major breakthrough, with Sherrod Brown reclaiming a Republican-held Senate seat and Democrats winning the governor's race. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton defeated Republican incumbent Roger Marshall, ending a Democratic Senate drought stretching back to 1932.
The results also produced historic firsts. Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected governor in US history in Georgia, while New Mexico's Deb Haaland became the first Native American woman to win a governorship. New Hampshire's Chris Pappas became the first openly gay male US senator.
The Democratic victory, however, comes with limitations. Even with control of both chambers, the party is unlikely to pass much of its legislative agenda given Trump's veto powers and the 60-vote threshold for most Senate legislation.
