….scale of threat extends beyond the six countries examined
Rising temperatures are threatening workers’ health, employment and economic productivity across Ghana, Ethiopia, Lebanon, the Maldives, Senegal and Sri Lanka with losses projected to reach millions of jobs and billions of dollars in annual economic output as climate change intensifies, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) has warned.
New studies by the organisation show that heat stress is already disrupting working conditions and productivity with outdoor and labour-intensive sectors bearing significant risks.
The research was presented at a high-level online event on October 29, 2026, and commissioned by the ILO with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and Vulnerable Twenty (V20) Finance Ministers. Funding was provided through the CVF-V20 Joint Multi-Donor Fund.
Agriculture, construction, fisheries and transport are particularly exposed because large numbers of workers in these industries perform physically demanding tasks in high-temperature environments.
The findings highlight the growing economic cost of extreme heat, particularly for countries with limited capacity to protect workers and adapt workplaces to changing climate conditions.
“Every single industry and every single workplace will stand to benefit from adapting workplaces to heat stress,” said Andreas Floris, lead author of the studies.
The studies examine the current and projected effects of rising temperatures on workers, labour markets and national economies, while identifying measures governments and employers can adopt to protect livelihoods and sustain productivity.
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Millions of jobs at risk as temperatures rise
The scale of the threat extends beyond the six countries examined in the studies. Globally, about 2.4 billion workers are exposed to excessive heat, while heat stress is projected to eliminate the equivalent of 80 million full-time jobs by 2030. Nearly 19,000 work-related deaths are also attributed to excessive heat annually.
The country-level projections indicate that the economic consequences could become substantially worse over the coming decades, even under relatively low-emissions scenarios.
By 2040, Ghana could record 550,000 losses, while Ethiopia could lose approximately 1.78 million full-time equivalent jobs, while The projected figures also include 145,000 jobs in Sri Lanka, 129,000 in Senegal, 21,700 in Lebanon and about 2,400 in the Maldives.
The corresponding annual gross domestic product losses could reach $23.2 billion in Ghana, $33.3 billion in Ethiopia, $26 billion in Sri Lanka and $10.5 billion in Senegal. Lebanon could lose $2.6 billion, while the Maldives could record losses of approximately $575.5 million.
The studies show that the extent of the damage will depend on national climate conditions, employment structures, economic characteristics and the ability of governments and businesses to adapt.
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Employers face growing pressure to protect workers
Beyond employment losses, heat stress is increasing pressure on businesses to reconsider workplace conditions, occupational safety measures and the organisation of work.
Marlene Attallah, deputy director general at Lebanon’s Ministry of Labour, said protecting employees from excessive heat should be considered an investment rather than an additional cost to businesses.
“Protecting workers from heat stress should not be viewed as an additional burden but as an investment in workers’ health, productivity and working conditions,” she said.
For employers, the consequences extend to reduced productivity, higher workplace risks and potential disruptions to business operations. Workers in outdoor and physically demanding occupations are particularly vulnerable when employers lack adequate measures to manage exposure to extreme temperatures.
The ILO findings therefore point to the need for governments and businesses to integrate heat protection into occupational safety and health policies, alongside broader climate adaptation strategies.
Social dialogue seen as key to climate response
The studies identify workplace safety interventions, stronger social protection and climate-resilient economic planning as important measures for limiting the impact of rising temperatures.
They also emphasise cooperation between governments, employers and workers in developing policies that reflect the conditions faced by affected industries and communities.
Alpha Dia, professor and researcher at Senegal’s National Employers’ Council (CNP), said engagement between employers and workers would be essential to developing effective responses.
“Social dialogue is our best adaptation tool to heat stress. It will protect workers while reinforcing the resilience of companies,” he said.
Participants at the launch also stressed that climate adaptation policies must account for workers’ experiences and protect those whose livelihoods depend on outdoor and labour-intensive activities.
Ella Frankel, who works in Communication and Policy at the International Union of Food, Agricultural, Hotel, Restaurant, Catering, Tobacco and Allied Workers’ Association (IUF), said workers should not be forced to sacrifice their health to maintain their livelihoods.
“No worker should ever have to choose between their health and their livelihood,” she said.
As temperatures continue to rise, the ILO said advancing a just transition and promoting decent work would be important to protecting workers, businesses and national economies.
Its Guidelines for a Just Transition Towards Environmentally Sustainable Economies and Societies for All provide a policy framework for addressing the employment and social consequences of environmental and climate-related changes.
Ngozi Ekugo holds an MSc in Management from the University of Hertfordshire. She is also an alumna of University of Lagos, Queen’s College, and an Associate Member of CIPM. Her experience includes a brief exposure in the Human Capital Management division of Goldman Sachs in London. She draws on her cross-sector experience to cover employment trends, career opportunities and international mobility.
