Twenty-five years after Nigeria liberalised its telecommunications industry, allowing private operators to replace the state-controlled Nigerian Telecommunications Limited (NITEL), the sector has become one of the country’s most commercially successful infrastructure markets.
Yet reliable, affordable and universal connectivity remains an unfinished promise.
The industry has attracted billions of dollars in investment, expanded active subscriptions to nearly 200 million and become critical to banking, commerce, education and other economic activities.
However, dropped calls, unstable internet connections, rapid data depletion and poor service remain persistent consumer complaints, raising questions about whether the gains of privatisation are reaching ordinary Nigerians.
Latest Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) statistics show that active telephone subscriptions reached 197.42 million in August 2026, up from 179.64 million in December 2025. Teledensity increased to 91.07 percent from 82.87 percent. However, subscriptions do not represent unique individuals, as many Nigerians operate multiple SIM cards.
Market concentration is also significant. MTN Nigeria controlled 102.56 million subscriptions, representing 52.01 percent, while Airtel had 67.42 million, or 34.19 percent. Together, they accounted for approximately 86.2 percent of the market.
The sector contributed 9.72 percent to Nigeria’s GDP in the second quarter of 2026, according to the rebased GDP series, compared with 9.19 percent in the first quarter.
Yet the expansion in market size and economic contribution has not eliminated the structural weaknesses affecting service delivery.
N4trn investment, persistent infrastructure constraints …
Nigeria’s telecommunications industry has moved considerably beyond its early investment profile. The NCC estimates that cumulative local and foreign investment reached approximately $75.6 billion by the end of 2021, compared with about $500 million when the market was liberalised in 2001. More recent commitments indicate that capital deployment remains substantial.
Gbenga Adebayo, chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), told BusinessDay that operators have collectively invested more than N4 trillion in network infrastructure.
According to him, operators deployed approximately N2.13 trillion in capital expenditure in 2025 and committed another N1.86 trillion for 2026.
However, Adebayo argues that the industry’s ability to translate investment into improved consumer experience is constrained by unreliable electricity, fibre-optic cable disruptions, insecurity, regulatory bottlenecks and rising operating costs.
“Telecommunications service delivery is an ecosystem. The quality and availability of service depend on several interconnected factors, many of which are outside the direct control of operators,” he said.
ALTON estimates that electricity-related challenges account for approximately 40 percent of quality-of-service incidents, fibre disruptions 29 percent and security challenges another seven percent.
Adebayo also said diesel prices increased from approximately N978 per litre in February 2026 to N2,050 in September, significantly raising the cost of keeping network infrastructure operational.
“An operator may upgrade a base station and increase its bandwidth, but a power outage or fibre cut along the transmission route can still disrupt service,” he said.
The industry’s argument raises a fundamental question about Nigeria’s privatisation model: how much responsibility for poor service rests with operators, and how much reflects the government’s failure to provide an enabling environment?
For consumers, however, the distinction offers little comfort when connectivity remains unreliable despite rising investment.
Read also: Nigeria’s 11,000 rural telecom sites burn 40m litres of diesel monthly
A N3.67trn data economy, but consumers remain dissatisfied…
The growth in internet consumption illustrates the commercial transformation of the industry.
An analysis of NCC data estimates that Nigerians consumed approximately 8.52 million terabytes of mobile internet data between January and June 2026, compared with 5.96 million terabytes in the corresponding period of 2025.
Using an indicative average benchmark of N431 per gigabyte, the consumption represents an estimated N3.67 trillion market value, up 43 percent from N2.57 trillion a year earlier. This is an estimate of consumption value, not audited industry revenue.
Consumption reached a record 1.756 million terabytes in August, taking cumulative usage between January and August to approximately 11.94 million terabytes.
The financial results of the two largest operators demonstrate how this demand is translating into commercial growth.
MTN Nigeria reported service revenue of N4.586 trillion for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, up 23.7 percent. Data revenue increased 35.8 percent to N2.684 trillion, accounting for nearly 59 percent of service revenue.
Active data users rose 12 percent to 57.2 million, while average monthly consumption per active user increased 16.2 percent to 15.3 gigabytes. Profit after tax advanced 55.3 percent to N1.165 trillion.
Karl Toriola, chief executive officer of MTN Nigeria, attributed the performance to increased usage, higher data adoption and growing smartphone penetration.
Airtel Africa also reported Nigerian revenue of $1.008 billion for the six months ended September 30, 2026, representing 26.6 percent growth in constant currency. Data revenue rose 33.8 percent to $544 million, while data customers increased 11.8 percent to 32.9 million.
Despite the commercial expansion, consumer dissatisfaction remains significant. NCC statistics show that operators received more than 413,000 complaints in the first half of 2026.
The regulator has introduced a compensation framework requiring operators to compensate eligible subscribers affected by poor service. Adebayo said more than 75 million subscribers had reportedly received compensation by October.
However, he cautioned that compensation does not resolve the underlying infrastructure problems.
“Compensation is a remedial measure. It does not, in itself, resolve the underlying infrastructure challenges responsible for service degradation. Our preference, as an industry, is always to prevent poor service rather than compensate for it after the event,” he said.
Deolu Ogunbanjo, national president of the National Association of Telecommunications Subscribers of Nigeria (NATCOMS), told BusinessDay that consumer protection should extend beyond regulatory sanctions to direct compensation.
“For years, we have agitated that fines should follow the victim, not just the treasury. The subscriber is the one who suffers the dropped call and the lost data,” he said.
The contrasting positions highlight the challenge of balancing operators’ commercial interests with their obligations to consumers.
140 million Nigerians remain outside mobile internet economy …
The expansion in subscriptions and data consumption masks a deeper connectivity problem.
According to the GSMA’s State of Mobile Internet Connectivity 2026 report, approximately 140 million Nigerians were in the mobile internet usage gap as of 2025. These are people living in areas covered by mobile broadband networks but who do not actively use mobile internet.
The figure highlights the difference between network availability and actual digital inclusion. Nigeria’s challenge is no longer limited to extending coverage; it must also make connectivity affordable and accessible.
High smartphone costs, expensive data, limited digital skills, electricity challenges and inadequate awareness continue to prevent millions from using mobile broadband.
This means additional investment in telecommunications infrastructure alone will not close the country’s digital divide.
Aminu Maida, executive vice chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), has stated that telecom operators must prioritize lasting improvements in network performance over simple financial compensation.
Speaking at the 95th Telecom Consumer Parliament in Lagos, Maida emphasized; “People want their phones to work, their charges to make sense and someone to take responsibility when things go wrong. Financial compensation could not reverse the effects of missed business opportunities or failed communications. Nigerians should be able to rely on connectivity as they go about their lives, knowing that their rights will be protected when something goes wrong.”
Read also: Explainer: What changed 20 months after the telecom price hike
Government’s N90,000km fibre and 3,700 towers face execution test…
The federal government is pursuing two major infrastructure programmes to address Nigeria’s connectivity deficit.
Project BRIDGE, a $2 billion public-private partnership, is designed to deploy 90,000 kilometres of fibre-optic cables across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, connecting more than 770 local government areas.
The initiative is expected to expand Nigeria’s existing fibre infrastructure from approximately 35,000 kilometres to 125,000 kilometres.
The government has secured development finance commitments, including $500 million from the World Bank, $100 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and $200 million from the African Development Bank. The European Union has also provided a €22 million grant.
Bosun Tijani, minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, had announced that physical implementation would begin in October 2026, with a first-year deployment target of 30,000 kilometres.
However, as of November 3, the 90,000-kilometre project is yet to officially kick off, with no comprehensive public implementation map confirming the states where physical fibre-laying has commenced.
The missed commencement timeline raises questions about the transition from financing commitments and project preparations to actual infrastructure delivery. The government needs to publish an updated construction timetable, identify initial deployment locations and disclose measurable milestones.
The second programme, the Nigeria Universal Communication Access Project (NUCAP), plans to deploy 3,700 telecommunications towers to extend connectivity to nearly 20 million Nigerians in underserved and unserved communities.
Unlike Project BRIDGE, which focuses on the national fibre backbone, NUCAP targets wireless coverage through new towers, alongside public Wi-Fi and smart village solutions.
The programme recorded its first physical milestone on October 16, 2026, when the Federal Government commissioned its first tower in Bende Local Government Area of Abia State.
Tijani said: “NUCAP is here. Another major step towards connecting every Nigerian. Starting with the commissioning of our first site in Bende, Abia State, NUCAP will deliver 3,700 telecommunications towers across Nigeria, connecting close to 20 million Nigerians currently without access.”
The initial rollout includes seven pilot locations across Abia, Delta, Enugu, Plateau, Katsina and Ogun states. However, the commissioning of the Abia tower does not establish that all identified locations are already operational.
Both initiatives could improve connectivity, but their success will depend on timely execution, sustainable financing, infrastructure protection and coordination with existing operators.
More importantly, additional fibre and towers will not automatically connect the 140 million Nigerians already within broadband coverage but not using mobile internet. Device affordability, data prices and digital literacy must also improve.
Infrastructure protection remains critical …
Beyond coverage and affordability, the physical condition of telecommunications infrastructure remains a major constraint.
Adebayo said fibre cuts, vandalism, theft and restrictions on access to network facilities undermine operators’ ability to maintain service. He identified road construction and excavation without adequate coordination as frequent causes of fibre disruptions.
Inconsistent Right-of-Way charges and approval procedures across states also increase deployment costs.
ALTON has called for telecommunications infrastructure to be designated and protected as critical national assets. Adebayo urged the National Assembly to strengthen legislation against infrastructure vandalism, harmonise Right-of-Way charges, facilitate infrastructure sharing and reduce bureaucratic obstacles to network expansion.
“The industry has demonstrated its commitment through substantial investments, but sustaining them requires policies that encourage capital formation rather than discourage it,” he said.
He also argued that sanctions against operators alone cannot resolve the industry’s structural challenges. “Sanctions alone cannot build fibre networks, provide electricity to base stations, prevent vandalism or facilitate access to infrastructure,” he said.
While operators must remain accountable for service standards, government must also address the infrastructure and regulatory weaknesses affecting network performance, Adebayo posited.
The unfinished business of privatisation …
Nigeria’s first phase of telecommunications liberalisation focused largely on expanding voice services and creating a competitive market. Its next phase must deliver reliable broadband, close usage gaps and make connectivity a productive asset for households and businesses.
That requires operators to continue expanding capacity and improving service quality, while government addresses electricity constraints, protects fibre infrastructure, harmonises Right-of-Way charges and reduces unnecessary regulatory costs.
The NCC must strengthen performance monitoring and ensure that compensation frameworks complement measurable improvements in service delivery. The National Assembly must also provide stronger legislative protection for critical telecommunications infrastructure.
Adebayo believes the industry’s ability to sustain investment depends on these conditions.
“We all want better service, but better service requires investment, and investment requires an enabling environment,” he said.
The transformation since 2001 is undeniable. However, the industry’s next test is no longer simply how many subscribers it can attract or how much data it can sell.
It is whether the financial value generated by a N4 trillion investment can translate into reliable, affordable and accessible connectivity for Nigerians. Until that happens, telecommunications liberalisation will remain an impressive commercial success with an unfinished public-service promise.
Royal Ibeh is a senior journalist with years of experience reporting on Nigeria’s technology and health sectors. She currently covers the Technology and Health beats for BusinessDay newspaper, where she writes in-depth stories on digital innovation, telecom infrastructure, healthcare systems, and public health policies.
