A similar demographic shift is underway in Latin America, including in Cuba, Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, and Colombia. Just a few decades ago, these countries had much smaller elderly populations compared to Europe and thus had lower old-age dependency ratios. Now they are catching up with Europe on this measure.

In some parts of Asia, demographic concerns are more heightened as populations are expected to age even faster than in Europe and Latin America, especially in China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. By 2035, the old-age dependency ratio is expected to increase from 21% to almost 34% in China. In Hong Kong, it is expected to exceed 55%.

North America’s population will continue to grow and will age more moderately, mostly because of immigration. In the United States, the old-age dependency ratio is forecast to increase from around 28.8% today to about 34% by 2035. Immigration policy will shape the exact extent of population change and aging in the country.