Indorama is betting $261 million that the world will still need more urea when its fourth production line in Nigeria comes online, even after a year in which global fertiliser prices swung violently on war and export curbs.

South Korea’s Daewoo Engineering & Construction said it received a letter of award from Indorama Fertilizer Free Zone Enterprise, Indorama’s Nigerian subsidiary, to build the new line at Eleme, near Port Harcourt.

The contract is valued at 350 billion South Korean won, about $261 million. Daewoo will serve as prime contractor for facilities capable of producing 2,300 tonnes of ammonia, 4,000 tonnes of urea and 4,000 tonnes of urea granules per day.

The award is not yet a final contract, and construction has not started. It’s a bet on future demand and on Nigeria’s position as a supplier outside the chokepoints that roiled the market in 2026.

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The Middle East supplies about a third of global urea exports, and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted for months over the Middle East conflicts, pushing urea to multi-year highs in the spring before Chinese supply and demand destruction pulled prices back.

Indorama’s expansion would add 1.4 million tonnes a year, increasing its total installed urea capacity in Nigeria from about 4.2 million tonnes to 5.6 million tonnes, a rise of roughly 33 percent.

That would make the Eleme complex one of the largest individual urea production plants, exporting from Onne Port on the Atlantic.

Daewoo said its track record helped secure the award. The company completed Indorama’s third production line on May 30, ahead of key scheduled milestones, after also delivering the first two lines and supporting feedstock and power facilities.

“Its timely delivery and long-standing relationship with Indorama helped secure the latest project,” Daewoo said.

Since entering the country in 1983, Daewoo has completed 75 projects worth a combined $10.8 billion.

Documents published by the African Development Bank on October 27 cover about 80 hectares of vacant land within the existing complex, including additional storage and handling infrastructure at the MM FZE port within the Onne Port Complex, another urea warehouse, and truck-unloading and conveying facilities.

The plans also include an approximately 65-kilometre natural gas pipeline connecting the complex to the supply network at Awara in Imo State. Combined with an existing 11-kilometre section, the system will extend to about 76 kilometres.

Global urea production in 2026 is forecast at 190-192 million tonnes, with demand at 195-197 million tonnes. Experts expect prices to ease in 2027 as Gulf exports recover and gas prices moderate, with the World Bank projecting urea prices to rise close to 60 percent across 2026 before easing in 2027.

If Train 4 arrives into a softer market, Indorama will be competing on volume and cost against Gulf producers returning to the market, Chinese exporters under quota, and Dangote Fertiliser, which is also expanding in Nigeria.

Josephine Okojie-Okeiyi

Josephine Okojie-Okeiyi is a journalist with over five years’ reporting experience. She writes on industry, agriculture, commodities, climate change, and environmental issues. She is fellow of Thomson Reuters Foundation and Bloomberg Media Initiative for Africa.