REUBEN ABATI

“My brother, is President Tinubu back from Umrah, in Saudi Arabia?”

“I don’t know. How would I know? I am not one of those people who go to the Nnamdi Azikiwe Airport in Abuja to see him off, or travel ahead to his destination to receive him, and then make it back in time before him, to receive him when he gets back to the country?”

“You know the way some faces tend to show up at every airport to receive the President, I am beginning to suspect that the Nigerian government may have acquired a transponder, and that airport protocol has also become the job of some Ministers and Governor who just want to be seen by the President no matter what it takes. The Rankadede crowd of Nigeria, the affliction of the Nigerian sycophant and the idle class.”

“Name them. Mention them. Give us names.”

“I can’t do that. My children are still young. They can’t afford to lose their father. Certainly not at this time when politicians are branding anyone who opposes them as an enemy that must be eliminated. There is too much talk about AK 47 in the country. Fire them. Kill them. Burn them. The last time I had a comprehensive medical check-up, my doctor didn’t find a trace of suicidal tendencies in my blood and he advised me to keep it that way.”

“Who is that doctor testing for suicide in a normal medical check-up?”

“In some countries, the doctors do, especially if you are Nigerian and it is a political season in your country. I will give you the contacts. No matter how tough things get in this country, just maintain your sanity.”

“You are justifying cowardice. An active citizen must stand up to be counted. Courage is the name of the game.”

“Go and say that to Comrade Omoyele Sowore. He almost lost his life over the weekend in Ado Ekiti when some hoodlums, wielding machetes attacked him and his supporters at a restaurant and descended on them with venom. They managed to survive and now Sowore and the Ekiti State Police Command are arguing over the details. But it could have been worse. I saw the CCTV video showing a Nigerian who was using a machete to cut into the flesh of another Nigerian as if he was cutting a helpless cow at an abattoir. Omo, the thing scare me! They are almost turning Nigeria into Kenya as in the electoral disorder in that country in 2007.”

“No. I don’t think so. That was an ethnic blow-out they had in Kenya. I don’t think we are dealing with the same thing here. The problem we have in Nigeria is the greed of our politicians and the disappearance of the citizen, and along with it, the Nigerian spirit. But I am optimistic, the President has gone to Saudi Arabia to pray for peace and stability. He prayed at the Grand Mosque in Makkah. He had the privilege of entering the Holy Kaaba, the Holy of Holies, the Makama Ibrahim, to pray. And that is a special privilege. Before Tinubu, only two other Nigerians have had the privilege of entering the Holy of Holies – Sir Ahmadu Bello and Sheik Abubakar Gumi, the father.  You can’t get closer to God than that. And I believe God still answers prayers.”

“I don’t know much about that. But you have not answered the question: is the President back?”

“The Presidency has formally announced that he has completed his Umrah trip to Makkah, which has turned out to be both a resounding diplomatic and religious success. He even used the opportunity to sell Nigeria’s economy again to the Arabs. And the Crown Prince gave him a gift. But why is his return important to you?”

“Good. Thank you for asking. You know when he announced that he was travelling for Umrah, the opposition parties led by the ADC and its Presidential candidate, Waziri Adamawa Atiku Abubakar started the propaganda that he was instead going on a medical trip because he lacks the capacity to campaign. They demanded for proof of his presence in Makkah and concrete evidence that he was going there for spiritual reasons.”

“That is why we need the opposition. But he has shocked them, anyway, by providing every photo and every video evidence of his arrival in Saudi Arabia, and his activities. He has been transparent. His spokespersons had announced that he will return this week, Nov. 2 – 8, so he should be on his way back”

“Precisely my point. He should return and make the point clear that it is the opposition that is mischievous. Nobody should come up with any press statement that the President is going to stop by in London or France for two days before returning to Nigeria! No. No. He should head home right-away. You know this superstitious thing about prayers.  When you go to the church or the mosque or wherever for prayers, and you have been blessed, you are obliged to carry the blessings straight to your home. The belief is that if you stop here and there, some of the blessings may drop elsewhere. Home, straight.”

“You Nigerians and your superstitions, even when Section 10 of the Nigerian Constitution says there shall be no state religion in Nigeria. They have held elections in Brazil. Neither Lula nor Flavio Bolsonaro, his opponent went anywhere to pray. Israel has announced the results of its recent 120-seat Knesset elections. I don’t think any of the leaders of the parties in the election went to pray anywhere not even inside the same Israel where Christian Nigerian leaders say they must commune with Jesus before any election. America votes today, midterm, 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 seats in the Senate and 36 Governorship positions up for grabs across America. I have not heard that any of the contestants has been going around looking for prayers and blessings.”

“You cannot compare America with Nigeria when it comes to matters of faith. Every individual can choose to worship God the way he chooses. America proclaims “In God We Trust.” But is America a Godly country? Is Trump a Christian? This mid-term election in the United States is about the future of American democracy.”

“Not quite. The core issues as America votes are: inflation and the cost of living, Trump’s tariffs which ended up putting pressure on the average American consumer, the affordability of things, the war in Iran, immigration. healthcare, government corruption, AI and data centres and social security.”

“I think the key issue is Donald Trump himself, and the future of American democracy is tied to him, and where he has brought America. He had said “Pretend I’m on the Ballot” and clearly America has to decide whether they can put up hereafter with his authoritarian, isolationist, island style which has reduced America’s stature in the world, or they want back that old America, the land of dreams, the country that was once known as God’s own country. How American democracy turns out after these mid-term elections will have implications for global relations and the balance of power in that country.”

“So, your predictions, then? The main battlegrounds are in Michigan, Texas, Kansa, Iowa, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina and Alaska and the rising blue wave. What do you predict?”

 “It is very difficult to predict. What we know is that the polls favour the Democrats 51. 5 % to 43.1% for the Republicans. But the Democrats must win 3 House seats extra and 4 more in the Senate to win the majority in Congress. The Republicans are working hard to stop that from happening.  The question is: are the polls accurate? Out of 210 million registered voters, 53.14 million voted early, even before November 3, especially in Georgia. The polls also show that President Trump has the lowest approval rating mid-term since Harry Truman, with 33% on the eve of the midterm elections in November 1946. In 1994, Bill Clinton lost 54 seats in the House of Representatives. In 2010, President Obama lost 64. In 2018, Trump himself lost 42 seats. Will Trump defy history in 2026? Will he escape the mid-term penalty? The political party that controls Congress can redraw the shape of American politics. But anything can happen? I think we should watch. The voting must have started by now.”

“I have enjoyed the drama though.  Obama on the stumps pulling apart Trump at every opportunity on Middle East politics, White House renovation, the drama in Ohio about racism allegations concerning Amy Acton (D), an ad, and her mother, Michigan Congresswoman Haley Stevens, rejecting Abdul El-Sayed (D) and endorsing Republican rival, Mike Rogers, and Trump threatening that he will become Mr. Veto if Democrats take control of Congress.”

“Whatever drama you may have seen in the US, it is still all very healthy compared to what we are seeing here in Nigeria. The American voters are not going about with machetes or AK 47, and shooting people because of elections. We didn’t see that also in Brazil and Israel. Here in Nigeria, threats everywhere. Reign of impunity. It is as if we are preparing for war. The rhetoric of war is getting louder.”

“That is what happens during every election cycle in Nigeria. Don’t worry Nigeria will survive. Some people will die. Some will end up in hospitals, Nigeria will remain. No be we, we? Who wan die, make he die, carry go.”

“No. It is the primary duty of government to protect and care for the people.”

“Okay, dey there. Make your Folorunso or Godwin go dey sleep for train track. Come see, if train no go kpai am. Delete. Unalive. State. Citizen. Shey na him make Sowore dey go chop for roadside canteen for Ado Ekiti? Him wey wan be President of Nigeria dey go siddon for Mama Tawakalitu joint dey ask for amala and gbegiri. E siddon for roadside make street urchins or political thugs or what did he call them, to come and argue with him?  Na so dem dey do politics?”

“He can choose to eat anywhere, travel anywhere, campaign anywhere. He is an active citizen”

“Very good. My point is that to join Nigerian politics, you must understand the grammar of Nigerian politics. To be a politician in Nigeria, you must learn to protect yourself. This is a Do-It-Yourself country. People build their own boreholes in their homes, they install solar panels to give them electricity, they hire guards to protect their properties, but when it comes to politics, they say they want their opponents to protect them. Yes, in theory. But there is no ideal situation here, Sowore should go and get his own bodyguards and able-bodied men. He was lucky the machete missed his head in Ekiti.”

“You are saying the Nigerian state has failed.”

“Don’t put words in my mouth. I am saying that heaven helps those who help themselves. The saying is not in the Bible as many people think. But it is basic common sense. If you are looking for the source of the saying, go to Benjamin Franklin’s Poor Richard’s Almanac (1757) or Algernon Sydney’s Discourses Concerning Government” (1798).”

“I am not looking for any sources. Must you quote this and that in a normal conversation.? It is beginning to look like some kind of sickness. Say what you want to say, don’t disturb me with what some dead persons said 100 years ago. I don’t care. I don’t want to have a headache”

“I am saying Nigerian politicians ahead of the 2027 elections should also be security and safety conscious. Look at Peter Obi. He went to Bayelsa state to campaign in the company of Countryman, Chairman of the NDC, Seriake Dickson and others. He was inside a canoe, with an ill-fitted life jacket. He was even holding it with his hands.  Does he know how to swim? If that canoe capsized, he would have been surprised that all the Ijaw guys on the canoe will swim ashore. People wey be say na fish appearing in human form. Peter Obi should not take such risks. If anything happened to him, we would have been told that it is because President Tinubu forgot to pray for his protection in Makkah.”

“Is President Tinubu supposed to pray for those who want him out of power?”

“Yes, including Sowore. Don’t be surprised that some people are already saying the President forgot to pray for him in Makka.”

“Dey there. He probably did.  But the heavens help those who help themselves, not so? You can’t refuse to wear a seat belt, you get into an accident and you complain about your step-mother having witchcraft.”

“Let this election just come and go.”

“INEC don ready so?”  

“INEC will be ready when it is ready”