There are unsubstantiated feelers that some Northern political elements within the All Progressives Congress (APC) are ganging up on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. While some dismiss this as mere beer-parlour rants, others point to reports that some party candidates display campaign materials bearing their photographs alongside that of the President in city centres, only to discard such arrangements as they move deeper into the hinterland.

Is this indicative of a rumbling volcano and a desperate attempt by politicians to save their own heads?

Handlers of the President’s strategic team have dismissed such contemplations as cheap rhetoric by naysayers and opposition propaganda designed to hoodwink the public into believing that the North is treacherously working against the President.

But the recurring question is: Why would any politician contesting on the platform of the President’s party distance himself from him when, historically, contestants would do anything and go the whole hog to identify with their presidential candidate as a sure bet for acceptability and likely victory at the polls?

A very strong case in point was the scenario with the late President Muhammadu Buhari. When he emerged as the party’s flag-bearer in 2014, virtually every politician in the APC was prepared to pay a premium to have Buhari’s image prominently displayed alongside theirs on campaign materials. From the North to the South and across the length and breadth of the country, not having Buhari’s photograph on one’s campaign material could spell doom at the polls.

While allegations of rejection are treated as exaggerated claims, the concerns are palpable, although they remain unsubstantiated and require closer scrutiny. Many have argued that these alleged distortions in campaign materials may be occasioned by the need to assuage grassroots anger across the North.

However, this argument is debatable because the optics from the APC’s engagement with the people in Northern Nigeria present a picture of solid local connections and an established party structure, powered by state governors, as demonstrated by the recent campaign flag-off in Kaduna.

Unequivocally, no party can, at this point, easily claim to have a more extensive, active, well-funded, mobilised and well-structured political framework in the region than the APC.

Therefore, dismissing these realities lacks rigour. For an opposition not ready to develop creative strategies to cut down the APC’s widening influence among the locals, it may as well begin to assess its fortunes before election day. The North remains a formidable battleground where the war will be won or lost.

Ironically, the casual observer cannot help but wonder: Where are the opposition parties? The campaigns are now underway, but the presidential candidates of the leading opposition parties appear preoccupied with television news flashes and appearances on talk shows, while their posters are conspicuously absent in many Northern neighbourhoods.

Is that a strategy, or is it simply a dearth of funds to match the APC’s aggressive campaign onslaught?

Could this be a tactical move to conserve resources against the backdrop of a possible mega rainbow coalition of G-100, with presidential candidates holding back until the coast is clear to put their money where their mouths are and engage vigorously?

What does Northern Nigeria bring to the table that both the incumbent and the opposition cannot ignore?

Since 1999, votes from the North have consistently and significantly influenced the outcomes of presidential elections. From Obasanjo to Yar’Adua and Jonathan, the story has largely been the same, although the political dynamics have varied from one election to another. In 2011, the South rallied strongly behind Jonathan. But by 2015, Buhari’s votes from the North alone were only slightly below the total votes Jonathan garnered nationwide in that election.

Jonathan polled 12,853,162 votes nationwide, while Buhari secured 12,228,491 votes from the North alone, alongside another 3,196,430 votes from the South, giving him a national total of 15,424,921. Buhari thus defeated the incumbent President for the first time in Nigeria’s democratic experiment since 1999. These figures are based on the reported regional breakdown of the presidential results; INEC’s official national figures confirm the candidates’ respective totals.

These further underscore the argument that votes from this region matter to any serious-minded presidential candidate and must be given the utmost attention.

But the contemplation on the streets is that many of the dynamics, and possibly voting patterns, may change in 2027, given the increasing agitation among the talakawas against the region’s political elite.

While some harsh critics submit that Buhari’s government was among the worst Nigeria has experienced, others contend that there is no justification for the present administration to take Nigerians through what appears to be the longer route to the Promised Land.

So, are Northern voters, especially the emerging army of knowledge-driven and politically savvy young people, daring enough to ask the right questions of their leaders? Or is this just another round of grandstanding, similar to what some Northern power blocs have done over time in pursuit of their self-interests?

In this light, the alleged rejection of the President among the talakawas, as some have projected, is hinged on the harsh economic realities arising from his administration’s policies, which have affected them like other Nigerians.

But when the President declared that there would be no going back to Egypt on his policies, was that indicative of the government’s insensitivity to reactions from the North, as projected by some people? Or was it a case of telling the opposition, in effect, that this is the voice of Jacob and the hand of Esau—go do your worst?

Given the optics across the region and the persistent engagement of the APC with its people, the party appears to be reading the room appropriately and responding with all it takes to win the region.

Sadly, the opposition seems not to have taken off. The campaign that the North will come out strongly against the President may just be a ruse. The APC appears to be knocking on every door and deploying every known strategy to court the people, while the opposition struggles to match its momentum.

Will the 2027 presidential election be another major anti-climax, with the fervour and steam from the opposition seemingly arrested and crippled?

By this time in 2023, the country was literally on fire, and the heat generated by the opposition, especially Peter Obi’s campaign, was suffocating, even without a formidable nationwide party structure.

As many analysts have projected, if a disadvantaged Tinubu could mop up 5,598,686 votes from the North out of the 8,794,726 he garnered nationwide in 2023, it is conceivable that he may not do badly as an incumbent with the backing of a substantial number of state governors. However, that remains a political calculation, not a guarantee of electoral victory.

Little wonder, then, that the APC’s campaign schedule begins in Kaduna, with Yola, Adamawa State, scheduled for January 4, 2027, ahead of the grand finale in Lagos on January 9. The choice of Yola, home state of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, is particularly significant. The party appears determined to demonstrate its reach across the country before bringing the campaign to a close in Lagos.

Could it be that the party is saying, by all means necessary, Lagos must fall this time around?

Nigerians are anxiously waiting to see whether the North will throw President Tinubu under the bus, as many believe it did Jonathan in 2015. But the handwriting on the wall appears to point to a potentially different outcome.

After all, as many would say, this President is one of the last surviving godfathers of Nigerian politics, and he appears to have the political machinery locked down.

But will the North oblige him, or will it spring a surprise? That is the million-naira question.